Commodity Demand — SA1: Friday 28 August 2026
South Australia demand sits at 1,262 MW at 6:30am AEST, with spot price at $118.88/MWh, tracking a classic overnight-to-morning ramp. Demand troughed near 283-345 MW between 2:50am and 3:00am, when prices fell as low as $23-42/MWh, before climbing sharply through the morning peak. The steepest price-demand correlation shows in the 6:00-8:30am window: demand rose from 974 MW to 1,676 MW as prices spiked from $70/MWh to a local high of $143.36/MWh at 6:30am, reflecting the tight supply-demand balance as wind generation (currently 339 MW) and gas plant ramped to cover the morning ramp before solar established itself.
Today's forecast trajectory points to a further pullback through the day. AEMO's forecast curve shows prices easing from current levels toward $70-86/MWh by 8-9am AEST, then falling into negative territory overnight (as low as -$6.47/MWh forecast for 4:30pm AEST tomorrow, reflecting the pattern from the past 24 hours rather than today specifically). For the remainder of today, expect prices to hold in the $75-127/MWh band through the day based on the forecast curve, with a secondary firming toward $110-128/MWh around 6:30-10:30am AEST as demand builds toward its daytime plateau near 1,650-1,715 MW (observed between 8:45am and 12:00pm in the most recent data). Demand eases back below 1,300 MW by early evening as heating load and solar output both taper.
Current generation mix shows wind at 339 MW, gas OCGT at 277 MW, gas CCGT at 234 MW, and battery discharge at 113 MW, with solar at zero given the pre-dawn timing. Renewable penetration sits at 46.96% with carbon intensity at 0.3058 tCO2/MWh. Weak wind conditions are forecast for today (average wind potential just 0.8%) and cloud cover is low at 14%, suggesting solar will do more of the midday work than wind, consistent with the price uplift seen whenever gas plant needed to cover shortfalls overnight.
On the demand side, AEMO's active Minimum System Load notice flags a forecast MSL1 event for the SA region on 31 August (demand as low as 168 MW at 1:30pm), reinforcing the pattern of very low midday minimum demand in SA under strong renewable output — not a today event, but indicative of the structural low-demand risk building into early next week. No demand-side constraints or intervention notices are currently active for today's trading period; the most recent SA intervention (voltage-related direction to Barker Inlet PS) was cancelled on 27 August, leaving the market to operate without directions currently in force.