Commodity Demand — SA1: Monday 17 August 2026
South Australia demand sits at 1,428 MW at 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $37.04/MWh — down sharply from the overnight morning peak where demand reached 2,110 MW at 08:45 AEST and price hit $87.57/MWh. This 682 MW swing between the pre-dawn trough and morning peak drove prices from single digits to the high $80s/MWh, confirming SA's price curve remains tightly coupled to demand once wind output is accounted for: strong wind generation (1,164 MW currently, against total demand of 1,428 MW) is keeping prices subdued despite the demand recovery underway.
Overnight, demand troughed near 1,340-1,350 MW between 18:00-20:00 AEST with prices oscillating between $19-38/MWh, and briefly turned negative (-$7.14/MWh at 05:30 AEST on 17 August) when wind output overwhelmed low demand. The clearest price sensitivity is visible through the morning ramp: as demand climbed from 1,585 MW at 06:00 to over 2,000 MW by 08:30, prices rose in near lockstep from $36/MWh to $85+/MWh, indicating thin dispatchable margin above wind during that window before easing back to $50-85/MWh through the middle of the day as demand plateaued near 1,900-2,000 MW.
AEMO's forecast points to a further softening through today's evening and overnight period: forecast RRP eases to $54.50/MWh by 21:00 AEST tonight, then collapses toward zero and into negative territory ($-4 to $-8/MWh) from 23:00 AEST through to 06:00 AEST tomorrow as demand drops overnight and wind generation persists. A secondary, more moderate demand-driven price lift is forecast for tomorrow's morning ramp (08:00-10:00 AEST), with forecast RRP rising to $30-37/MWh — materially lower than today's equivalent peak, consistent with stronger forecast wind potential (7.4% average) easing tomorrow's supply-demand balance.
No demand-side constraints or directions are currently active for SA — the most recent SA-specific notices (Murraylink control restoration, cancelled reclassification of contingency lines) relate to network/interconnector conditions rather than load-side issues. The active MTPASA reserve notice flags a potential low-reserve condition in SA for July 2028, not relevant to today's operational outlook. Renewable penetration currently sits at 96.86% with carbon intensity at 0.0154 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the dominant wind contribution against today's moderate demand levels.