Commodity Demand — SA1: Friday 14 August 2026
South Australia spot price sits at $162.34/MWh as at 06:25 AEST (14:25 UTC settlement), with demand at 1,281 MW and easing. This follows a sharp overnight demand ramp that saw prices spike well above $200/MWh: the region touched 1,904 MW around 09:20-09:55 UTC (roughly 17:20-17:55 AEST yesterday evening into the peak), with five-minute prices printing as high as $315.66/MWh during that window. The price-demand relationship is clearly non-linear in SA today — moves from ~1,900 MW down to ~1,000 MW compressed prices from the $200-300 range down to the $100-140 range, and the overnight trough near 1,000 MW (03:20-03:45 AEST) still carried elevated prices of $170-227/MWh, pointing to thin gas-fired margin at the low end of the stack rather than pure demand-driven softness.
Looking at the forecast trajectory, demand is expected to fall away sharply through the day. AEMO's forecast RRPs drop from $130/MWh in the next trading interval to single digits by 10:00-12:00 AEST ($9-18/MWh range), consistent with the low overnight demand trough and minimal thermal load given the mild 10.2°C conditions and low heating/cooling demand. Prices then rebound modestly into the morning peak, forecast at $109/MWh by 17:30 AEST and climbing toward $101-110/MWh across the 18:00-20:00 AEST window as demand builds again — a materially calmer outlook than the overnight volatility just experienced. Load-shifting windows identified for the 11:00-16:30 AEST period (UTC 01:00-06:30) offer prices as low as $9-18/MWh, over $140/MWh cheaper than peak.
Generation mix at the current interval shows gas (OCGT 393 MW, CCGT 284 MW) covering the bulk of supply, with wind at 139 MW, battery discharging 299 MW, and solar at zero given the pre-dawn hour. Renewable penetration sits at 39.3% with carbon intensity of 0.354 tCO2/MWh, both improving from the 06:00-08:00 AEST trough yesterday when renewable share fell to 10-15% and intensity rose above 0.51 tCO2/MWh during the demand ramp. On the notices front, Murraylink control has been unavailable since 06:10 AEST today (constraint I-CTRL_ISSUE_ML), removing normal interconnector flexibility with Victoria — this reduces SA's ability to import cheap supply or export surplus during today's demand swings and warrants monitoring given the region's exposure to price spikes during ramp periods. A standing MTPASA reserve notice also flags potential low reserve conditions in SA for July 2028, unrelated to today's operational picture but relevant for longer-term positioning.