Commodity Demand — SA1: Thursday 13 August 2026
South Australia spot price sits at $208.87/MWh at 06:35 AEST, with demand at 1,424 MW — down from the evening peak near 2,027 MW recorded around 06:20 AEST (18:50 local trading time yesterday evening) but still elevated against the sub-$90/MWh prices seen when demand was below 1,000 MW overnight. The price-demand relationship today is stark: every time demand pushed past ~1,900 MW, prices held in the $110-140/MWh band, and the past 30 minutes have seen prices spike to a $255/MWh cap-adjacent print as demand rebuilt through the 1,350-1,455 MW range. This is a low-wind, low-solar day — wind is contributing just 109 MW and solar has dropped to zero as the evening period sets in, leaving gas (CCGT 346 MW, OCGT 444 MW) and battery discharge (219 MW) to cover the shortfall, which explains why price responds so sharply to each demand increment.
The forecast trajectory points to a volatile evening and overnight session. AEMO's forward curve shows forecast prices climbing to $255/MWh by 21:30 AEST, then hitting the $300/MWh administered cap through the 22:00-23:00 window before easing to $170-255/MWh overnight. A second, sharper spike is forecast tomorrow morning: prices are projected to reach $295-375/MWh between 10:00 and 12:30 AEST, coinciding with the typical late-morning demand ramp and continued weak renewable output (wind potential is forecast at just 0.5 average tomorrow, though solar potential improves to 8.7). Carbon intensity has already climbed to 0.41 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 29%, down from 60-70% renewable overnight, reflecting the shift from wind-and-battery-led supply to gas-dominated generation as demand builds.
Demand-side risk factors are limited but present. AEMO's MT PASA reserve notice flags a Low Reserve Condition risk for SA in July 2028, not an immediate constraint, so it carries no bearing on today's price action. No active SA-specific interventions or directions are in force today (the August 8 SA voltage-related direction was cancelled), which removes one source of price distortion seen earlier in the week. Traders should watch the evening peak (approximately 18:00-20:00 AEST) and tomorrow's late-morning ramp as the two windows where the demand-price relationship is most convex — each 100-200 MW of unmet demand above ~1,900 MW is translating into $100+/MWh price moves given the thin renewable buffer.