Commodity Demand — SA1: Monday 10 August 2026
South Australia is trading at $85.75/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,488 MW, tracking the tail end of the overnight demand trough and heading into the morning ramp. The past 24 hours illustrate SA's characteristic price-demand sensitivity: overnight demand bottomed near 1,111-1,160 MW between 14:30-15:00 AEST (04:30-05:00 UTC), coinciding with sustained negative pricing (-$6 to -$15/MWh) as wind generation of 1,245 MW and near-zero overnight load pushed the region into oversupply. As demand climbed through the morning ramp — from 1,340 MW at 06:35 to a peak of 2,103 MW at 08:35 — prices responded sharply, spiking from -$6/MWh to a session high of $107.78/MWh at 08:20, confirming demand is the dominant near-term price driver once wind output is held roughly constant.
Today's demand trajectory should mirror this pattern. Current generation shows wind at 1,245 MW and battery discharge at 104 MW covering the bulk of the 1,488 MW load, with gas contributing only 64 MW (CCGT) and negligible OCGT. Renewable penetration sits at 95.5% and carbon intensity at just 0.0222 tCO2/MWh — both will compress as demand rises through the morning and solar has limited contribution given only 15% cloud cover but low current solar potential. AEMO's forecast curve points to a demand-and-price peak between 22:00-22:30 UTC (08:00-08:30 AEST), with forecast RRP climbing to $97.68/MWh, before easing back to the $70-87/MWh band through the middle of the day as demand moderates.
The demand outlook for the rest of today turns sharply lower after the morning peak: forecast prices fall into single digits by 11:00 AEST (01:00 UTC) and turn negative from around 11:30 AEST through to at least 04:00 AEST tomorrow, reflecting the low midday/afternoon demand trough combined with wind supply. Load-shifting windows identified by our models show best value overnight between 12:00-16:30 AEST tonight, with avg prices near -$1 to -$3/MWh — a $97-100/MWh saving versus this morning's peak. No specific demand-side notices (load shedding, DR events) are active for SA today; the only relevant market notices are a now-cancelled AEMO intervention event from 8 August and a since-revoked contingency reclassification on the Brinkworth-Davenport lines, neither of which affects today's demand outlook.