Interconnector Watch: Saturday 1 August 2026

VIC-NSW (VIC1-NSW1) is the standout this morning, flowing 1049 MW from Victoria into NSW and binding against its export limit of 1030 MW — effectively at full capacity. This is consistent with the price spread between the two regions: VIC sits at -$1.15/MWh while NSW is at $66.03/MWh, so Victoria is exporting cheap (likely renewable-heavy) generation north to capture the price differential, but the interconnector's capacity is capping how much further that arbitrage can flow. NSW is also drawing from QLD, with NSW1-QLD1 (QNI) at -993 MW against an import limit of -1091 MW — utilisation around 91%, not binding but tight, as NSW pulls supply from QLD ($55.50/MWh) to help meet demand of 7989 MW.

Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is binding hard, sitting exactly at both its import and export limit of -157.43 MW, flowing from SA into VIC. This is a fixed-limit constraint rather than a market-driven squeeze, and reflects the negative price environment in both regions (SA -$4.50/MWh, VIC -$1.15/MWh) with limited scope for flow variation. Heywood (V-SA) is flowing -160 MW (VIC into SA) at its import limit but not binding on the broader set, while Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is moving a modest 72 MW from TAS into VIC, well under its 265 MW export limit, with TAS prices near flat at $0.18/MWh. Directlink (N-Q-MNSP1) shows -41 MW (NSW into QLD) within its -129 MW to 31 MW band, unconstrained.

Multiple active constraint notices are shaping today's flow limits. A short-notice outage on the SYTS MLTS 2 line/SMTS 2 line CB (invoked 1715 hrs yesterday) has triggered constraint set V-SY_CB, affecting Basslink, Murraylink and Heywood simultaneously. Separately, the Tailem Bend to South East No. 2 275kV line outage (constraint S-TBSE) touches all five Vic/SA/NSW/QLD interconnectors on its left-hand side, though this was rescheduled to conclude by midday yesterday. A further automated security constraint (CA_SYDS_597B5710) has been active on Murraylink and Heywood since 0130 hrs 29 July, contributing to Murraylink's fixed-limit binding today. Combined, these constraints are compressing flexibility on the Victorian interconnector network right at the point where price spreads between VIC/SA (negative) and NSW/QLD (positive $50-66/MWh) are widest, reinforcing NSW as the region absorbing surplus low-cost southern generation up to the limits of transfer capacity.