Interconnector Watch: Sunday 13 September 2026

VIC-NSW (VIC1-NSW1) is binding at 560 MW flowing from Victoria into NSW, sitting right at its 560.1 MW export limit. This is being driven by Victoria's $50.42/MWh price sitting below NSW's $56.80/MWh, with generation in the Latrobe Valley and Victorian renewables pushing supply north to meet NSW demand of 7,277 MW. With VIC-NSW fully utilised, the ability to arbitrage the $6.38/MWh spread between the two regions is exhausted for now — any further NSW price pressure will need to be met by local generation rather than imports.

Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is also binding, exporting 39.93 MW from Victoria to South Australia against its 40 MW export limit. SA prices at $53.21/MWh sit above Victoria's $50.42/MWh, so the flow direction is consistent with price signals, but the tight 350 MW capacity of this link means it's a minor contributor next to Heywood. Heywood (V-SA) itself is comfortably within limits, exporting 258.07 MW into SA against a 258.07 MW export cap that also appears binding by data but has substantial headroom on the import side (-547.18 MW), suggesting the interconnector is near its practical export ceiling under current network conditions rather than a hard security constraint.

QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is flowing 310.5 MW from Queensland into NSW, well short of its 1,132.72 MW import limit, reflecting Queensland's $54.50/MWh price sitting modestly below NSW. Directlink (N-Q-MNSP1) is carrying a small 9 MW southerly flow from QLD to NSW, negligible against its capacity. Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is delivering 103.84 MW from Tasmania into Victoria, near its 125 MW export limit, but remains under an active constraint set (I-CTRL_ISSUE_BL) following a control system fault reported since 11 September — AEMO has capped its ability to follow dispatch targets, so this flow should be watched for stability rather than treated as a clean market signal.

On settlement residues, the NRM_VIC1_SA1 negative residue constraint that was active earlier this week has been cancelled as of 12 September 16:00, and NRM_NSW1_VIC1 similarly ceased on 11 September. No negative residue constraints are currently active on the VIC-SA or VIC-NSW corridors, meaning current binding flows reflect standard economic dispatch rather than residue management. WA1, outside the NEM interconnected grid, is trading separately at $108.81/MWh, underscoring the isolation benefit of interconnection for the eastern states in flattening regional price spreads today.