Load Advisor: Wednesday 1 July 2026
Overnight and early morning pricing across the NEM presents the clearest load-shifting opportunity today. VIC1 and SA1 are both sitting in negative territory right now, with VIC1 at -$6.51/MWh and SA1 at -$6.46/MWh, and predispatch forecasts show this persisting through the 10:00-18:00 AEST overnight block. VIC1 prices are forecast to hold between -$8 and -$5/MWh from 10:00 AEST through to at least 04:30 AEST tomorrow, driven by strong wind generation (13.7 MW potential currently, building to 17.5 MW average tomorrow) against soft demand. SA1 mirrors this pattern, with wind potential at 54.6 MW currently and prices forecast to stay negative-to-flat right through the same window. Flexible load in these two regions should be scheduled into the 10:00-17:30 AEST band today for maximum benefit.
NSW1, QLD1 and TAS1 will not go negative but still offer strong relative savings. NSW1 prices will trough around 11:30-13:00 AEST at roughly $53-57/MWh, a saving of $60-67/MWh versus this morning's peak near $121/MWh forecast for 18:00 AEST. QLD1's best window sits at 09:30-13:30 AEST, with prices in the $54-63/MWh range — critical to hit given QLD1 forecasts show an extreme price spike to $444.32/MWh at 18:30 AEST, the sharpest peak of any region today. TAS1's trough is later, around 13:30-17:30 AEST, with prices flat near $0-10/MWh through that stretch after an early morning peak of $88.22/MWh.
The peak periods to avoid nationally cluster in two bands: the 17:30-19:00 AEST evening ramp (NSW1 climbing to $108-121/MWh, QLD1 spiking to $444/MWh, TAS1 rising to $88/MWh) and, in NSW1 and QLD1 only, a secondary morning peak near 07:00-08:30 AEST where NSW1 reaches $108-121/MWh and QLD1 touches $130-444/MWh. VIC1 and SA1 show no comparable evening peak risk today given sustained negative pricing.
For a coordinated NEM-wide dispatch strategy: shift all deferrable load into the 10:00-17:00