Load Advisor: Tuesday 30 June 2026

NEM-wide spot prices are sharply split at 06:25 AEST: NSW sits at $97.67/MWh and QLD at $92.30/MWh on solid winter demand of 8,446 MW and 6,517 MW respectively, while VIC ($10.50/MWh, 5,499 MW) and SA ($9.57/MWh, 1,546 MW) are running near floor prices. TAS clears at $25.12/MWh against 1,113 MW. Predispatch forecasts show NSW escalating through $121–$130/MWh across the 06:30–09:30 AEST window, and QLD pushing above $100/MWh from 17:00 AEST onwards — both represent the primary periods to avoid scheduling any flexible load today.

The standout load-shifting opportunity NEM-wide is the 12:00–19:00 AEST block in VIC, SA, and TAS, where predispatch prices will turn and hold negative — reaching as low as −$7.47/MWh in VIC (18:00 AEST), −$7.14/MWh in SA (18:30 AEST), and −$0.51/MWh in TAS (15:00 AEST). SA is the sharpest play: prices will drop into negative territory from approximately 13:00 AEST and remain there through to at least 19:00 AEST, saving up to $101/MWh against today's SA peak. For NSW-based flexible loads, the 12:30–13:30 AEST window (avg $29/MWh) is the primary low-price trough, saving approximately $100/MWh against the morning peak. In QLD, overnight hours 10:00–15:00 AEST are the best available windows at $20–$27/MWh, saving $83–$87/MWh versus the daytime peak above $100/MWh — though the savings opportunity is structurally shallower than in the southern regions.

For TAS operators, the 13:30–15:00 AEST window prices flat to negative (−$0.08/MWh avg) and is low-risk; the 12:30–13:30 AEST window carries a high-risk flag and should be treated with caution around dispatch uncertainty. Winter heating demand — Tasmania currently sits at 9.3 heating-degree-days, Victoria at 6.3 — will lift residential load into the morning peak and again from 18:00 AEST, which is precisely when VIC and SA prices will be at their most negative; flexible industrial loads in those regions running controllable processes (water heating, refrigeration cycling, electrolyser operation) should target that afternoon window aggressively.

Concrete scheduling recommendation: loads in VIC and SA should be pre-positioned to run continuously from 13:00 to 19:00 AEST today, capturing the full negative-price block and avoiding the 06:00–10:00 AEST morning ramp entirely. NSW flexible loads should target the 12:30–14:00 AEST trough at ~$29–$73/MWh and avoid 06:00–12:00 AEST. QLD loads should shift to the 10:00–15:00 AEST window at sub-$27/MW