Commodity Demand — TAS1: Friday 19 June 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $27.20/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,078 MW — well below the overnight peak of 1,360 MW recorded around 08:00 AEST and consistent with a typical winter Saturday morning trough. The price-demand relationship across today's history is striking: when demand climbed through the 1,200–1,360 MW band during the overnight period (roughly 07:00–14:00 AEST), prices locked in at $70–$78/MWh for extended runs. As demand retreated through the afternoon into the 950–1,000 MW range, prices collapsed to the $25–$27/MWh band, tracking almost linearly with load. The brief sub-$15/MWh prints between 04:30 and 06:00 AEST — demand sitting near 960–990 MW — point to supply surplus conditions that quickly resolved as load began rebuilding after 05:00 AEST.
The forecast trajectory signals a material price step-up through today's evening. The current 06:30 AEST dispatch settles at $27.20/MWh, but forward forecasts escalate sharply: $43.15/MWh by 07:30, $46.95/MWh at 08:00, then a sustained plateau at $70.24/MWh from 08:30 AEST through to at least 17:00 AEST. This is the critical demand-price inflection point — as Tasmania's heating load rebuilds on a 6.3°C morning with a forecast maximum of only 11.9°C today, dispatch prices are expected to more than double within two hours. The $70/MWh ceiling aligns closely with the price levels sustained throughout last night's peak when demand exceeded 1,200 MW, suggesting the market anticipates a return to similar load conditions.
There is a relevant reliability flag in the market notices. AEMO declared a Forecast LOR1 for Tasmania on 25 June between 08:00–09:00 AEST, with available reserve of 530 MW falling 50 MW short of the 580 MW requirement. While this does not affect today's dispatch directly, it signals constrained reserve headroom over the coming week — relevant context if demand runs above forecast during today's morning peak. At 1,078 MW and rising, Tasmania remains in the lower third of its observed demand range for this period, but the forecast ramp to $70.24/MWh implies the market expects load to recover toward the 1,200 MW zone within the next two hours. Traders holding flexible load have a narrow window at current sub-$30/MWh conditions before that transition completes.