Commodity Demand — TAS1: Thursday 18 June 2026
Tasmania is sitting at 1,186.74 MW with a spot price of $29.29/MWh at 06:30 AEST, having risen sharply from a daytime trough of around 893 MW at 00:45 AEST when prices were tracking near zero. The demand climb over the past two hours — up roughly 290 MW from the overnight low — has already pushed the price from near-zero territory through the $4–7/MWh range and into the high $20s. At 9.1°C with a heating demand index of 8.9, the morning ramp is temperature-driven and consistent with typical winter residential load pickup. The price response to this demand recovery has been relatively contained so far, reflecting adequate hydro dispatch headroom — hydro is presently generating 974.59 MW alongside 253.68 MW of wind, with gas OCGT sitting at zero.
The forecast trajectory is the key story today. Prices are expected to hold in the $27–29/MWh range for the next two intervals before stepping up sharply: from 08:30 AEST the forecast shows a sustained band of $63–71/MWh running through to approximately 17:00 AEST, with the 09:00–11:30 AEST window forecast at $70–71/MWh. This aligns with mid-morning peak demand — the historical pattern from today's data shows Tasmania's daily peak sitting in the 1,240–1,260 MW range between 17:30–07:55 AEST, and the price sensitivity above roughly 1,200 MW is pronounced. The step-change in forecast pricing at 08:30 AEST indicates the dispatch stack tightens materially as demand approaches and sustains above the 1,200 MW threshold.
The afternoon and evening outlook shifts substantially. Forecast prices collapse from around 21:30 AEST onward — dropping to $4.18/MWh by 02:00 AEST Friday and $2.24/MWh by 04:00 AEST — mirroring the pattern seen earlier today when demand fell below 940 MW and prices sustained near $0.08–0.18/MWh for several hours. Demand-side managers and flexible loads have a clear window: the 02:00–04:00 AEST block on Friday morning offers the deepest price trough, while the 22:30–01:00 AEST window at $58–64/MWh represents the last expensive period before that relief arrives.
One risk to monitor: AEMO has an active Forecast LOR1 notice for Tasmania on 25 June 2026, flagging a 50 MW reserve shortfall between 08:00–09:00 AEST that morning (530 MW available against a 580 MW requirement). That is not a today issue, but it signals the reserve margin in TAS is tight enough to warrant watching as winter demand holds elevated. No interconnector constraints directly affecting TAS are currently active in the market notices.