Load Advisor: Wednesday 17 June 2026

NEM-wide spot prices are split sharply this morning across two tiers. VIC1 and SA1 are trading at or below zero — VIC1 sits at -$0.10/MWh and SA1 at -$2.00/MWh — while NSW1 ($79.49/MWh) and QLD1 ($78.73/MWh) remain elevated on the back of winter evening heating demand. TAS1 is mid-range at $25.89/MWh. These divergences define where load shifting value is concentrated today.

SA1 presents the strongest sustained opportunity on the NEM. Prices will remain negative through the overnight and early morning period, with the standout window at 1:30 PM AEST (03:00 UTC) forecast at -$20.00/MWh, repeated again at 2:00 AM AEST (06:00 UTC). The entire band from midnight through to 8:30 AM AEST holds negative or sub-zero prices, with virtually no gap until the afternoon session resumes negative from 1:30 PM AEST onward at -$1.00 to -$4.01/MWh. SA1 flexible loads — industrial processes, hot water systems, battery charging — should be running continuously through this window. VIC1 is similarly compelling: prices forecast at effectively zero from 10:00 AM AEST through to 12:00 PM AEST (00:00–02:00 UTC), then drifting to $10.50/MWh before turning negative again from 2:00 AM AEST (16:00 UTC) onward, bottoming at -$3.96/MWh by 4:00 AM AEST. The five-hour afternoon block from 2:00 AM to 4:00 AM AEST (16:00–18:00 UTC) is VIC1's best load window of the day.

In NSW1, the overnight trough from 11:00 PM to 4:30 AM AEST (01:00–06:30 UTC) provides the primary load-shifting window, with prices forecast to drop to $23.95/MWh at 1:30 AM AEST and $25.74/MWh at 3:00 AM AEST. NSW1 operators should avoid the morning ramp: prices will climb back above $64/MWh from 4:00 PM AEST (06:00 UTC) and remain above $67–$79/MWh through the business day until approximately 1:00 PM AEST. A secondary afternoon window opens from 3:00 PM AEST at $40–$43/MWh — useful for non-critical flexible loads but not exceptional. QLD1 carries a sharper risk: a mid-morning peak is forecast above $100/MWh between 7:00 PM and 7:30 PM AEST (09:00–09:30 UTC), with $105.53/MWh the ceiling. QLD1 flexible loads should be front-loaded into the 11:00 PM–5:30 AM AEST window (01:00–05:30 UTC), where prices fall to $23.63/MWh at 1:30 AM AEST, and avoided entirely from 4:00 PM through 9:00 PM AEST. TAS1 is the most predictable