Interconnector Watch: Tuesday 16 June 2026

Interconnector conditions at 06:30 AEST are dominated by two binding links that are directly shaping the NEM's north-south price structure. VIC-NSW (VIC1-NSW1) is fully bound at its export limit of 963 MW, pushing power north from Victoria into New South Wales. This constraint, combined with the active V-KGKO set stemming from the unplanned 9 June outage of the Kerang–Koorangie 220 kV line, is suppressing Victorian prices to $0/MWh while NSW clears at $80.10/MWh — a spread of over $80/MWh that the interconnector cannot arbitrage further given it is already at its binding export ceiling. QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is simultaneously binding at its import limit of -399.78 MW, meaning power is flowing south from Queensland into NSW at the maximum constrained level. QLD prices sit at $76.17/MWh, just below NSW, consistent with this southward flow direction and the active CA_BRIS_593C7214 constraint set, which has been managing power system security in the QLD region since 11 June and limits Directlink's (N-Q-MNSP1) operating range — Directlink itself is carrying only -17 MW southward, well within its -90.4 MW import headroom and not binding.

On the southern links, Heywood (V-SA) is moving 196.9 MW westward from Victoria into South Australia against an import capacity of 533.14 MW, leaving substantial headroom. SA prices are at $0/MWh, matching Victoria, which suggests the Heywood flow is sufficient to transmit Victoria's depressed price signal across the border. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is carrying zero flow with both import and export limits at zero, effectively out of service — this is consistent with the ongoing V-KGKO constraint set, which lists V-S-MNSP1 on its left-hand side and continues to restrict its operation. Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is flowing 155.07 MW northward from Tasmania into Victoria, near but not at its constrained export limit of -152.41 MW; the active F-I_ML_APD_LOAD constraint set, invoked following the 10 June outage of the APD A2 500/220 kV transformer, is binding this link and holding Basslink just above its export ceiling. Tasmania clears at $59/MWh against Victoria's $0/MWh, a spread that would ordinarily incentivise heavier northward flow but cannot be exploited given the transformer outage constraint remains active.

The net picture: Victoria is the low-price hub at $0/MWh, exporting at full capacity north to NSW and west to SA, while multiple active network constraints — all originating from June outages still unresolved — are simultaneously capping what Basslink can export northward and preventing Murraylink from contributing to SA supply. Traders holding SA or Vic exposure should note that Murraylink's zero-flow state removes a secondary arbitrage path, leaving Heywood as the sole active VIC-SA link. With VIC-NSW binding on its export limit and QNI binding on its import limit, NSW is drawing from both directions simultaneously, supporting its $80.10/MWh price. Until the Kerang–Koorangie and APD transformer constraints are resolved, this configuration is likely to