Interconnector Watch: Monday 15 June 2026

6:30 AEST — VIC-NSW (VIC1-NSW1) is the standout story this interval, exporting 1,054.61 MW from Victoria into New South Wales and sitting hard against its binding export limit of 1,054.61 MW. That constraint is the direct mechanism driving the sharp price spread: Victoria clears at -$0.10/MWh and NSW at $70.60/MWh — a $70.70/MWh differential that cannot be arbitraged away while the interconnector is pinned at its ceiling. Three active market notices are relevant to VIC region transfer limits: the Kerang–Koorangie 220 kV unplanned outage (constraint set V-KGKO, invoked 9 June) is still active and has equations referencing VIC1-NSW1 on the left-hand side, meaning that network element's absence is contributing to the suppressed export ceiling. The APD A2 500/220 kV transformer outage (invoked 10 June, affecting Basslink via F-I_ML_APD_LOAD) is also still active, adding further complexity to Victoria's northern and cross-Bass transfer envelope.

Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is flowing 106.61 MW from Tasmania into Victoria — at its export limit of -106.61 MW, though AEMO has not flagged it as binding in the dispatch solution this interval. The APD transformer constraint is capping Basslink's effective operating range, and with Victoria already at near-zero prices, there is limited commercial incentive to push additional energy north across Bass Strait. Tasmania prices at $69.18/MWh reflect TAS1's partial decoupling from Victoria's surplus: Basslink is not passing Victoria's negative prices through to Tasmania, consistent with the flow direction and the active network limitation.

Heywood (V-SA) is carrying 396.60 MW westward from Victoria into South Australia, utilising 93% of its import limit into SA (-428.04 MW). South Australia clears at -$0.09/MWh, virtually identical to Victoria's -$0.10/MWh, confirming that Heywood is transmitting the price signal efficiently across that border with negligible spread — the interconnector is not binding and the two regions are effectively price-coupled. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) sits at zero flow with zero limits published, indicating it is out of service or in a zero-capacity state this interval; the Kerang–Koorangie constraint set V-KGKO references Murraylink on its left-hand side, which is consistent with its current inactivity.

QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is flowing 135.47 MW northward from NSW into Queensland, well within its import capacity of 590 MW — utilisation sits at roughly 23% and the interconnector is not binding. Queensland and NSW prices are nearly identical at $70.84/MWh and $70.60/MWh respectively, a $0.24/MWh spread that reflects normal transmission losses rather than a constraint-driven wedge. Directlink (N-Q-MNSP1) is at zero flow; AEMO's active constraint notice CA_BRIS_593C7214 (invoked 11 June for Queensland system security) continues to restrict N-Q-MNSP1, and with QNI flowing freely in the same direction, Directlink's zero state carries no material price impact this