Interconnector Watch: Monday 27 July 2026

Interconnector flows across the NEM are dominated by two binding constraints this morning, both pushing power out of Victoria as the region sits at negative pricing. VIC-NSW (VIC1-NSW1) is exporting 909 MW from VIC into NSW, sitting right at its 909.24 MW export limit — fully utilised. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is similarly maxed out, exporting 169 MW from VIC to SA at 100% of its 169.02 MW limit. Both constraints are consistent with the price spread: VIC is at -$1.15/MWh against NSW at $97.55/MWh and SA at -$1.05/MWh, with VIC generation (likely wind-heavy given the negative pricing) flowing to relieve local oversupply.

Heywood (V-SA) is running well short of its limits, importing 327 MW into SA from a 414.7 MW capacity — 79% utilised and not binding, leaving headroom despite Murraylink already saturated on the same VIC-SA corridor. Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is flowing 140 MW from TAS into VIC, only 40% of its 350.7 MW import limit, not binding — TAS pricing is also negative at -$1.16/MWh, reflecting ample generation with limited export capacity to soak it up. On the northern boundary, QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is flowing 492 MW from QLD into NSW, well inside its 1195.72 MW import limit (41% utilised), consistent with the narrower $97.55/$91.38 spread between NSW and QLD. Directlink (N-Q-MNSP1) is a minor 27 MW flow from QLD to NSW, near its small capacity band but not binding.

The key market dynamic today is VIC's negative pricing pushing maximum exports on both routes north (to NSW) and west (to SA via Murraylink), while Heywood's spare capacity means SA isn't fully absorbing the VIC surplus through that path — SA pricing is being set independently near zero regardless. The binding VIC-NSW flow is a primary driver of NSW's $97.55/MWh price holding above QLD's $91.38/MWh, as NSW is absorbing VIC's low-cost supply up to the interconnector's physical ceiling, with the residual demand met by higher-cost NSW-side generation.

AEMO market notices show no active binding constraint equations direct