Interconnector Watch: Monday 1 June 2026

At 07:30 AEST, VIC-NSW (VIC1-NSW1) is the most consequential interconnector in the NEM right now, carrying 1,059.7 MW north from Victoria into New South Wales and binding at its export limit. This flow is the direct expression of the $61.38/MWh price differential between NSW ($61.33/MWh) and VIC (-$0.05/MWh) — Victoria is effectively at zero price and the interconnector is pushing its ceiling to arbitrage that gap. Notably, AEMO activated a negative settlement residue constraint (NRM_VIC1_NSW1) on this link at 18:20 AEST last evening to manage residue accumulation, then cancelled it at 20:00 AEST once the threshold was no longer being breached. That episode reflects how sustained price inversions on a binding export path can generate negative settlement residues when market outcomes persistently diverge from SRA auction outcomes; traders holding VIC-NSW SRA contracts should review residue positions accordingly.

QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is carrying 196.21 MW northward from NSW into Queensland and is sitting exactly at its export limit of 196.21 MW, making it effectively binding in the export direction. With QLD at $111.11/MWh against NSW at $61.33/MWh, the $49.78/MWh spread is driving QNI to its cap — there is no headroom for additional northward flow. The N-Q-MNSP1 (Directlink) is also binding, exporting 49 MW northward into QLD at its export limit. Both northbound Queensland interconnectors are constrained, meaning the QLD-NSW price spread is being sustained by transmission limits rather than a lack of NSW supply.

On the SA corridors, Heywood (V-SA) is flowing 192.31 MW westward from VIC into SA at -192.31 MW, with import capacity of -616.8 MW, leaving it well below its limit and non-binding. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is binding hard at -150 MW — precisely at both its import and export limits — also delivering into SA from VIC. Despite this combined ~342 MW of imports from Victoria, SA prices are at -$0.05/MWh, matching VIC exactly. The Murraylink binding constraint is worth monitoring; AEMO activated dynamic rating forecasting for Murraylink constraints (VSML_RAT_LIM_DYN / SVML_RAT_LIM_DYN) from 27 May, so pre-dispatch ratings on this link are now model-driven and may shift with ambient conditions. The Koorangie–Wemen 220 kV outage constraint set (V-KOWE), which lists V-S-MNSP1 on its LHS, remains active and is a factor in Murraylink's current ceiling.

Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is flowing 154.09 MW southward from Tasmania into Victoria at -154.09 MW, non-binding against an import limit of -359.3 MW with roughly 205 MW of unused import capacity remaining. TAS is priced at $79.95/MWh against VIC's near-zero price, which ordinarily would suppress or reverse this flow — the continued southward export from TAS into a near-zero VIC price suggests TAS dispatch is constrained or scheduled ahead, and