Interconnector Watch: Sunday 12 July 2026

VIC-NSW is the standout this morning, running at full export capacity — 995.5 MW from Victoria into NSW, sitting right on its 995.5 MW export limit and binding. This flow is a direct response to the price spread: VIC1 is at -$1.15/MWh against NSW1 at $71.40/MWh, so the interconnector is pulling maximum value out of Victoria's surplus low-cost generation into the higher-priced NSW region. Despite the transfer, NSW1 demand (8,975 MW) is more than covering itself with QLD1 imports easing (NSW1-QLD1 flow at 201.7 MW toward QLD1, well within its 377.9 MW export limit, non-binding) — QLD1 prices sit slightly higher again at $76.24/MWh, reflecting its own tighter local balance.

Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is binding but stuck at a de-rated -4 MW, a direct consequence of the active AEMO notice confirming Murraylink's output controls are unavailable — this interconnector is effectively locked at a nominal flow level rather than responding to price signals until controls are restored. Heywood (V-SA) is flowing 340 MW from VIC1 into SA1, well inside its 523.8 MW import limit and non-binding, consistent with SA1's -$1.02/MWh price tracking VIC1's negative pricing almost exactly — both regions are awash with low-cost generation this morning, likely wind, with minimal spread between them.

Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is flowing 340 MW from TAS1 to VIC1, comfortably within its 373.8 MW import limit and non-binding, but the corridor is under active security scrutiny — AEMO reclassified the Gordon-Chapel St No.1 and No.2 220kV lines as a credible contingency this morning (0622 hrs) due to lightning in TAS1, invoking constraint set F-T-CSGO on Basslink's left-hand side. TAS1 pricing at -$1.20/MWh remains benign for now, but any further lightning-driven reclassifications could tighten Basslink's effective limit intraday. Directlink (N-Q-MNSP1) is flat at 0 MW, sitting idle within its narrow -41/-3 MW band, non-binding and not currently influencing the QLD1-NSW1 spread. Overall, the binding VIC-NSW