Interconnector Watch: Sunday 31 May 2026

Interconnector conditions across the NEM at 06:30 AEST show a clear south-to-north price gradient driving flows accordingly. QLD1 is the highest-priced region at $105.95/MWh against NSW1 at $80.00/MWh, and QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is flowing 268.98 MW northbound into Queensland — precisely at its binding export limit of 268.98 MW. This is the sole binding interconnector on the NEM right now, meaning QNI is fully constraining the NSW-to-QLD transfer and the $25.95/MWh spread between those regions is a direct product of that cap. Without the constraint, additional NSW generation would arbitrage into Queensland and compress that differential.

VIC-NSW is carrying 424.82 MW northbound from Victoria into NSW, at 46% of its 928.64 MW export limit — comfortably unconstrained with meaningful headroom remaining. The $8.15/MWh price differential between VIC1 ($71.85/MWh) and NSW1 ($80.00/MWh) is consistent with this open flow, where Victorian generation is clearing into the higher-priced NSW market. Heywood (V-SA) is flowing 402.52 MW westbound into South Australia at 63% of its 634.81 MW import capacity — also unbound. SA1 sits at $62.69/MWh, the cheapest mainland region, and the 9.16 $/MWh discount to VIC1 is sustaining that westbound flow. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is flowing 36 MW into Victoria from SA — a relatively minor counter-flow to Heywood — and sits well within limits.

Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is at zero MW flow, positioned squarely between its ±125 MW limits. With TAS1 priced at $87.20/MWh against VIC1 at $71.85/MWh, the $15.35/MWh spread would typically incentivise southbound flow from Tasmania into Victoria, but the flat Basslink position suggests either an outage, a scheduling decision, or a network constraint holding the link idle — traders should monitor for any AEMO dispatch instruction changes across the morning. The active constraint notice referencing the Koorangie–Wemen 220 kV line outage (V-KOWE constraint set, invoked 25 May) remains in force and nominally constrains VIC1-NSW1, V-SA, T-V-MNSP1, and Murraylink, though current flows indicate it is not actively binding any of those links at this dispatch interval. The Murraylink dynamic rating forecast model (VSML_RAT_DYN / SVML_RAT_DYN) activated 27 May is also live in pre-dispatch, which may affect available transfer capacity on that link intraday as temperature conditions evolve.

The dominant market signal right now is the binding QNI cap locking in a $25.95/MWh NSW-QLD spread. All other mainland interconnectors are open and flowing in line with prevailing price gradients. Watch the QNI export limit, Basslink dispatch status, and any intraday update to the Koorangie–Wemen outage as the primary variables shaping NEM price convergence through the morning.