Load Advisor: Friday 22 May 2026

Predispatch data points to a deep overnight trough across NSW, VIC, SA, and QLD from 07:30 AEST onwards this morning, with prices collapsing to sub-$25/MWh in NSW and VIC and turning negative in QLD. NSW currently sits at $56.07/MWh with 6,973 MW of demand, VIC at $47.93/MWh, SA at $48.05/MWh, and QLD at $82.50/MWh — all elevated relative to what predispatch is forecasting for the hours immediately ahead. TAS remains the outlier, sitting at $106.16/MWh now and the forward curve holds prices in the $80–$93/MWh range throughout the day with no meaningful low-price window visible in the data.

The strongest load-shifting opportunity across the NEM is the 07:30–09:30 AEST window. NSW predispatch shows prices settling to $23–$36/MWh from 08:00 AEST, a saving of $82–$97/MWh against current spot. VIC drops into the $10–$23/MWh range from 07:30 AEST, with isolated intervals at $0.02/MWh around 08:30 AEST. QLD is the standout: predispatch shows prices turning negative — as low as −$10/MWh — between 08:00 and 09:30 AEST before recovering to $23–$24/MWh by 10:30 AEST, reflecting clear midday surplus conditions ahead of the Saturday load trough. SA follows the same pattern, with prices forecast at $9–$15/MWh from 07:00 AEST, declining from the current $48.05/MWh. Flexible loads in these four regions should be staged to run hard through this window.

The price floor will likely be around 09:00–10:00 AEST across all mainland regions. NSW and SA prices begin lifting toward $35–$38/MWh at 10:00–10:30 AEST, and QLD recovers from negative territory to $22–$24/MWh by 10:30 AEST before climbing back above $36/MWh by 11:00 AEST (16:00 UTC). VIC stays subdued — $10–$22/MWh — through until approximately 09:30 AEST before a gradual rise toward $33–$36/MWh through the mid-morning, making it the longest-duration low-price region. Loads with a 2–3 hour flexibility window will capture the full trough depth; anything with only a 30-minute window should target 08:30–09:00 AEST where both VIC and QLD are forecast at their cheapest.

Concrete recommendation: schedule all deferrable flexible load — EV charging, water heating, refrigeration defrost, HVAC pre-conditioning, and industrial batch processes — to execute between 07:30 and 10:00 AEST in NSW, VIC, SA, and QLD. Avoid dispatching discretionary load after 10:30 AEST as prices will be rising toward evening peak territory; the forecasts show NSW and VIC trending back toward $55–$58/MWh by 11:00 AEST. TAS participants have no comparable low-price window today and should