Interconnector Watch: Friday 22 May 2026

NEM-wide interconnectors are carrying moderate flows at 06:30 AEST with no binding constraints active, though several active market notices continue to shape transfer limits across the Victorian network. The dominant flow is VIC1-NSW1 (Vic–NSW interconnector) at 783.94 MW northward into NSW, running at 93% of its 845.92 MW export limit — the closest any link comes to its cap this interval. That flow aligns with the $8.14/MWh price spread between VIC ($47.93/MWh) and NSW ($56.07/MWh), with Victoria's lower-priced generation arbitraging into the higher NSW market. Despite the South Morang F2 500/330kV transformer outage — active since 18 May under constraint set V-SMTX_F_R and listed as affecting VIC1-NSW1 among others — the interconnector is not yet binding, but the reduced export limit of 845.92 MW (compared to normal unconstrained capacity) reflects that outage's ongoing impact. AEMO's notice for that outage showed a scheduled end of 1700 hrs 22 May; traders should verify whether the constraint set has since been deactivated, as the notice remains flagged active in the system.

Heywood (V-SA) is exporting 95.22 MW from Victoria into South Australia against an export limit of 224.89 MW, sitting at 42% utilisation. SA prices ($48.05/MWh) are closely aligned with Victoria ($47.93/MWh), consistent with the modest flow magnitude — there is minimal arbitrage incentive and no binding constraint. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is carrying just 9 MW from Victoria into SA, well inside its 44 MW export limit, but this link has been subject to an active unplanned outage notice (constraint set I-ML_ZERO invoked 0145 hrs 17 May) and a separate Redcliffs converter station outage notice — both still marked active. At 9 MW, the link is effectively operating at minimal capacity, and the constrained export limit of 44 MW confirms reduced transfer capability remains in place. The near-zero SA–VIC spread provides no pressure to push that limit regardless.

On the Queensland border, QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is flowing 3.66 MW southward from Queensland into NSW — essentially negligible in volume — and Directlink (N-Q-MNSP1) is also carrying a small southward flow of 14.43 MW. Both links are at their binding export limits (export_limit equals mw_flow for both), meaning the market dispatch has set those flows as the effective ceiling in this direction, though the absolute MW values are too small to materially influence pricing. The $26.43/MWh gap between QLD ($82.50/MWh) and NSW ($56.07/MWh) is striking given QNI's near-zero northward capacity utilisation; this spread would normally drive heavier northward flows into Queensland, suggesting either network constraints not captured in this interval's binding flag or demand/generation conditions in Queensland are driving endogenous price elevation that interconnector imports are insufficient to suppress at current transfer limits.

Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) sits at zero flow, with an export limit of 0 MW, confirming the link is either under outage or AEMO has set its export capability to nil this interval. Tasmania's price of $106.16/