Commodity Demand — QLD1: Thursday 21 May 2026

Queensland spot price is $98.81/MWh at 06:35 AEST, with demand sitting at 6,427 MW and rising. The price-demand relationship across today's trading has been tight and consistent: demand troughed near 3,825 MW in the early hours (around 01:35 AEST) when prices ran negative at around -$3.01/MWh, then climbed steadily through the morning ramp, crossing 7,100 MW between 07:00 and 08:00 AEST and pushing prices into the $98–$133/MWh band. As demand eased back through the middle of the day — falling to around 5,400–5,800 MW from midday to early evening — prices moderated to the $72–$86/MWh range, demonstrating a clear demand-price elasticity at current supply stack conditions. The evening ramp is now underway, with demand climbing from a local trough of ~5,280 MW at 17:00 AEST back through 6,427 MW at 06:35 AEST, and prices responding in lockstep, rising from the low $70s back toward the high $90s.

The forecast RRP for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) has converged from early-day forecasts of $120–$124/MWh down to the most recent estimate of $101.83/MWh, reflecting a demand trajectory that is firming but not spiking. The demand ramp is being supported by mild autumn heating conditions — current temperature is 14.3°C with a heating demand index of 3.7 — which typically sustains elevated evening load in Queensland without the sharp peaks associated with extreme cold. The 21:30 AEST forecast RRP sits around $90.40–$105.95/MWh across successive forecast runs, suggesting the market expects demand to plateau or ease slightly as the evening progresses rather than continuing to climb sharply toward the 7,100–7,370 MW levels seen during this morning's peak.

The current generation mix — black coal at 4,714 MW, wind at 1,009 MW, battery at 770 MW, gas OCGT at 466 MW, and hydro at 119 MW — indicates that marginal pricing is being set by thermal plant as demand rises into the evening. Batteries are actively dispatching into the ramp, consistent with the price signal. The non-conformance notice for STAN-4 (15 MW, 08:45–08:50 AEST) had no material price impact given the modest volume. The overnight low-demand period (roughly 09:00–11:00 UTC, or 19:00–21:00 AEST last night) produced sustained negative prices as far south as -$4.09/MWh, confirming the supply stack remains well-supplied at trough demand levels and that batteries are charging cheaply for tonight's discharge cycle.

For the remainder of today, the key price driver is the pace of demand recovery through the 07:00–09:00 AEST window. If demand returns toward the 7,000+ MW range seen this morning, prices are likely to test $100–$130/MWh again. The forecast RRP trajectory of $96–$102/MWh suggests the market is pricing a moderate rather than aggressive demand peak, consistent with mild weather and a Friday load profile. Load windows flagged from 08:00 AEST