Commodity Demand — QLD1: Monday 18 May 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $100.07/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 6,614 MW — a significant moderation from the overnight session where prices ranged $225–$338/MWh against demand running 6,800–7,100 MW between roughly 11:30 AEST Monday night and 03:30 AEST Tuesday. That overnight elevation reflected tight supply margins and a Forecast LOR1 condition that was active for QLD on 18 May, subsequently cancelled at 10:15 AEST. Today's demand trajectory follows an inverse relationship with price: as demand climbed to its morning peak of 8,134 MW around 17:55–18:00 AEST, spot prices paradoxically softened into the $130–$165/MWh range, reflecting the arrival of daytime generation capacity at scale. The afternoon trough saw demand fall to around 5,600 MW with spot prices dropping to the mid-$80s/MWh, and prices are now recovering as demand builds toward the evening ramp.

The more significant price risk today sits in the evening peak. Demand is currently rising from its post-midday low of ~5,600 MW and the trajectory points toward 6,500–7,000+ MW through 08:00–10:00 AEST tonight, a pattern consistent with the overnight periods seen in the price history. Solar generation is negligible at 0.64 MW given 100% cloud cover, and wind is contributing 853 MW. With the thermal fleet — 4,144 MW black coal, 934 MW gas OCGT — carrying the evening load, the marginal cost stack tightens as demand pushes higher. Critically, AEMO's ST PASA forecast (Market Notice 144109) carries an active LOR1 condition for QLD today from 06:00 to 19:30 AEST, with forecast minimum reserve available of only 1,012 MW against a requirement of 1,197 MW. That reserve shortfall is the primary price risk for the 16:00–19:30 AEST window.

Forecast prices for 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) are clustered at $111–$118/MWh across multiple dispatch runs, a notable downward revision from early overnight forecasts that were printing $297–$442/MWh for the same target interval — indicating the market has absorbed most of the reserve risk into supply response. However, the LOR1 condition for today's peak window (06:00–19:30 AEST) remains live, and any generation outage or demand surprise above ~7,000 MW could see prices spike into the $250–$338/MWh range consistent with overnight intervals at similar demand levels. Flexible load operators should treat the 16:00–19:30 AEST window as elevated-risk and note that overnight load windows from 11:30 AEST tonight onward are forecast well below $100/MWh, with some intervals pricing below $70/MWh.