Commodity Demand — QLD1: Saturday 16 May 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $91.60/MWh with demand at 5,617 MW as of 06:30 AEST this Sunday morning. Today's demand trajectory has already traced the classic autumn shape: a pre-dawn trough near 4,360 MW around 10:50 AEST produced prices in the high $30s/MWh, before demand ramped sharply through the morning peak — touching 7,304 MW at 17:50 AEST and sustaining prices above $100/MWh through the 07:00–13:00 AEST window, with intra-hour prints reaching $123.07/MWh. The price-to-demand relationship is clear and tight: every sustained move above 7,000 MW pushed prices above $105/MWh, while the afternoon demand retreat below 6,000 MW saw prices ease to the low $70s–$80s/MWh range through 15:00–17:00 AEST.
Demand is now in a secondary evening plateau, tracking between 5,400–5,660 MW and holding prices anchored in the $91–$102/MWh band. Forecast pricing for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) is converging on $105.95/MWh in the most recent runs, up from earlier forecasts of ~$91–$96/MWh, suggesting the market expects demand to lift modestly as evening heating loads build — consistent with an overnight low of 15.2°C and heating demand already registering at 2.8. The 08:00 AEST (22:00 UTC) forecast drops sharply to ~$40/MWh, and by 09:30–10:30 AEST forecasts are sub-$25/MWh and in some runs negative, reflecting the anticipated overnight demand trough where low residential load and wind generation (currently 1,066 MW) exert downward price pressure.
The key demand-side risk this week is Tuesday 19 May. AEMO has issued a Forecast LOR2 for Queensland from 06:00–19:30 AEST on 19 May, with minimum reserve available of just 605 MW against a requirement of 760 MW — a 155 MW shortfall. A separate LOR1 covers Monday 18 May from 13:00 AEST. These notices signal that today's relatively contained demand profile (a Sunday with a 15–23°C forecast and 88% cloud cover suppressing solar output) is not the constraint; Monday and Tuesday daytime peaks are. The Murraylink outage invoked at 01:45 AEST today (constraint set I-ML_ZERO) removes one inter-regional transfer pathway, tightening the reserve picture into the week ahead and adding upward pressure to forward pricing in Queensland should demand track toward the upper bound of AEMO's PASA outlook.
Today's remaining price outlook is straightforward: spot is expected to stay in the $91–$106/MWh range through 07:30 AEST before falling into the $40–$80/MWh corridor for the balance of the overnight period, tracking the demand descent toward the 4,400–4,800 MW trough that typically forms between 10:00–13:00 AEST. Demand-side participants with load flexibility should note the sharp price gradient between the 06:30–08:00 AEST window and the 09: