Commodity Demand — QLD1: Sunday 17 May 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $214.07/MWh with total demand at 6,574 MW as of 06:35 AEST — a level that is sustaining prices well above $200/MWh as the morning ramp continues. The demand trajectory through today's session is steep and directionally clear: from a overnight trough of approximately 4,168 MW around 00:45 AEST, load has climbed more than 2,400 MW in under six hours, with the sharpest price acceleration occurring between 05:00 and 08:00 AEST when demand crossed 6,000 MW and prices broke above $115/MWh, peaking at $231.70/MWh at 17:00 AEST. Price sensitivity to demand increments is pronounced at current levels — each 100–200 MW step above 6,500 MW has been triggering dispatch of higher-cost marginal plant, with spot prices oscillating between $177–$240/MWh in that demand band throughout the morning.

The day's demand outlook carries a significant supply-adequacy overlay. AEMO has an active Forecast LOR1 notice for Queensland covering 17:00–19:00 AEST today, with available reserves (1,014 MW) falling 180 MW short of the 1,194 MW requirement. An earlier LOR2 condition — forecast reserves of just 357 MW against a 759 MW requirement for the same window — has been superseded but underscores the tightness. Forward price forecasts reflect this: the 21:00–21:30 AEST half-hour window is consistently showing forecast RRPs of $230–$300/MWh across successive pre-dispatch runs, with the 21:30 AEST interval carrying forecasts as high as $317–$442/MWh in earlier runs, settling most recently around $287/MWh. The evening demand build from approximately 6,000 MW toward the 17:00–18:00 AEST peak window is the key price risk period for today.

100% cloud cover and near-zero solar potential through today suppresses daytime solar contribution, leaving the generation mix heavily weighted toward black coal (2,132 MW), gas OCGT (846 MW), and wind (797 MW) at the latest read. The absence of solar during daylight hours removes a demand-moderating factor that would ordinarily soften the midday price profile — today there is no midday solar relief, meaning the load curve stays elevated from morning through evening without the characteristic lunchtime dip. With the LOR1 window centred on 17:00–19:00 AEST, traders should treat the 16:30–19:30 AEST period as high-volatility — demand at those levels with constrained reserves has historically been the trigger for sharp price excursions in QLD, and the forecast pre-dispatch stack already embeds $280–$442/MWh for 21:30 AEST. The LOR1 for 19 May also remains active, indicating reserve stress is not confined to today's trading session.