Commodity Demand — VIC1: Wednesday 20 May 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $128.72/MWh with demand at 5,773 MW at 6:25 AEST, and both metrics are rising sharply. Demand has climbed roughly 360 MW in the past 30 minutes alone — from 5,417 MW at 6:00 AEST to the current read — tracking the classic winter evening ramp as temperatures sit at just 9.8°C with a heating demand index of 8.2. The price response to this demand lift is direct and immediate: prices were clearing in the $110–$112/MWh range through most of the afternoon trough (4,660–4,900 MW), but have accelerated through $119–$129/MWh as demand crosses back above 5,700 MW. The generation mix at this point is heavily weighted to brown coal at 4,385 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 545 MW and battery discharging 101 MW — wind is supplying just 63 MW and solar is at zero, leaving the grid with renewable penetration of only 4.1% and carbon intensity at 1.11 tCO2/MWh, the highest point in today's session.

The demand trajectory from the history data tells a clear story for the price outlook tonight. Today's morning peak ran to 7,249 MW between roughly 9:00–9:30 AEST, with prices holding in the $110–$119/MWh range throughout. The midday-to-afternoon period saw demand fall to a trough near 4,660 MW around 3:00–4:00 AEST, with prices softening only marginally to the $110–$112/MWh floor — indicating the market floor is well-supported even at lower demand levels today. The current evening ramp is now well underway and, based on the morning peak profile, demand is likely to push through 6,000–6,500 MW within the next 60–90 minutes. Forecasts for the 7:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) are consistently centred around $128–$136/MWh across the most recent PASA runs, with the 7:30 AEST period attracting forecasts ranging from $128 to $184/MWh — a wide spread that signals genuine uncertainty around how tightly capacity is positioned as demand peaks.

A key constraint to monitor is the South Morang F2 500/330 kV transformer outage, which remains active until 1700 AEST on 22 May per Market Notice 144122, with constraint set V-SMTX_F_R invoked and affecting VIC1-NSW1 and other interconnector equations. This limits Victoria's ability to draw on interstate capacity precisely when evening demand is highest, compressing the headroom available to manage price spikes. With wind output negligible at 63 MW and no solar contribution, the full evening peak load must be served by thermal and battery resources. Battery at 101 MW is likely already discharging into the ramp, and with the overnight period showing forecast prices in the $25–$70/MWh range from 10:30 AEST onwards, storage operators will be weighing how aggressively to commit remaining capacity into tonight's peak versus preserving charge for tomorrow morning's ramp.

For demand-side participants, the window between approximately 10:30 AEST and 13:00 AEST tonight offers the most attractive spot exposure, with multiple forecast runs pointing