Commodity Demand — VIC1: Sunday 17 May 2026

Victoria is currently sitting at 5,266 MW at $226.51/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, and the price trajectory through the overnight period illustrates a clear demand-price relationship. Demand troughed around 4,260 MW between 03:00–04:00 AEST with prices holding in the $115–$155/MWh range, then climbed steadily through the pre-dawn period. The morning ramp drove demand to a 6,390 MW peak around 18:00–18:30 AEST — prices responded sharply, repeatedly printing above $200/MWh between 17:00 and 19:30 AEST including a $244/MWh spike at 16:00 AEST and $228/MWh at 17:45 AEST. As demand has since eased back from that peak, prices have partially followed, though the current $226.51/MWh print at 5,266 MW signals the evening demand rebuild is now underway and is applying fresh upward pressure on the market.

The price sensitivity to demand is pronounced in today's data. Prices were broadly anchored in the $100–$145/MWh band when demand sat below 5,100 MW during the overnight trough, but crossed $150/MWh consistently once demand cleared 5,300 MW and regularly printed $175–$244/MWh above 6,000 MW. That relationship is relevant to the evening outlook: demand is currently rising from a 4,260 MW intraday low recorded around 03:00–04:00 AEST and the 5,266 MW current reading is tracking upward. Absent wind or interconnector support, further demand growth into the 5,400–5,600 MW range is likely to sustain prices above $200/MWh. The Murraylink outage (constraint set I-ML_ZERO invoked, V-S-MNSP1 constrained) removes the SA import pathway, tightening the supply stack and reducing Victoria's ability to source cheaper interstate energy.

Forward forecasts for the 07:00–08:30 AEST window (UTC 21:00–22:30) are priced between $250/MWh and $360/MWh across multiple dispatch forecasts, with the 08:00 AEST target consistently attracting forecasts in the $275–$374/MWh range. This aligns with the typical Monday morning commercial demand surge overlaid on a cold, overcast day — current temperature is 14.1°C with 100% cloud cover, zero solar potential, and a heating demand index of 3.9. Solar will not provide meaningful relief today given near-total cloud cover, and wind potential is assessed at 0.1, consistent with the current 258 MW wind output. The generation mix at last read is 1,580 MW brown coal, 274 MW gas OCGT, 258 MW wind, 17 MW hydro, and 17 MW battery discharge, with renewables at 13.6% and carbon intensity at 0.98 tCO2/MWh.

Demand-side managers and flexible loads face a sustained elevated price environment through the morning peak. The forecast LOR1 condition declared for Queensland today (17:00–19:00 AEST) does not directly constrain Victorian supply but reduces the NEM-wide buffer and could limit northbound export headroom if Victorian supply tightens. With grid stress