Commodity Demand — VIC1: Saturday 16 May 2026

Victoria's spot price is $157.23/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand sitting at 4,469 MW — a level that is climbing from its overnight trough and driving prices sharply higher as the morning load ramp takes hold. The price trajectory through this morning tells the story clearly: demand bottomed near 3,360 MW around 14:15 AEST overnight when prices were as deep as -$11.56/MWh, then accelerated through the 06:30–08:00 AEST window as demand surged past 5,500 MW, pushing prices into the $90–$110/MWh band. The midday period saw demand ease back toward 4,850–5,000 MW while prices held firm in the $120–$175/MWh range, indicating the marginal cost stack is sitting at elevated levels even with demand moderating — a sign supply-side tightness, not just raw demand volume, is keeping prices elevated. The Murraylink outage (constraint set I-ML_ZERO invoked at 01:45 AEST this morning) is removing an inter-regional transfer pathway between VIC and SA, reducing the ability to import or export across that interconnector and adding upward pressure on Victorian prices independent of demand levels.

Forecast pricing for the next few intervals points to $121.54/MWh for the 07:00 AEST half-hour, easing toward the $98–$110/MWh range through 07:30–08:30 AEST as overnight conditions typically moderate. However, given the Murraylink constraint remains active and today is a Sunday with a forecast maximum of only 15.9°C and 100% cloud cover, the demand trajectory is unlikely to replicate yesterday's weekday peaks above 5,600 MW. The absence of solar generation (zero solar potential today) removes the usual midday demand suppression effect, meaning afternoon demand is likely to stay relatively flat in the 4,200–4,600 MW range rather than dipping sharply. That profile keeps prices supported in the $110–$145/MWh band through the afternoon and into the evening.

The current generation mix — 1,601 MW brown coal, 167 MW battery, 75 MW wind, with gas offline and solar negligible — reflects a tight evening dispatch stack with battery discharging into the price spike. The $157.23/MWh print is consistent with battery dispatch economics at this demand level under interconnector constraint. As demand continues its typical Sunday morning climb toward a modest peak around 08:00–09:00 AEST, prices are likely to stay above $110/MWh before easing back if demand plateaus. Traders should note the Murraylink outage as the primary structural factor elevating the price floor today — until that constraint is resolved, Victoria loses a key balancing valve and price volatility risk on any demand step-change remains elevated.