NEM Overview: Tuesday 19 May 2026
Queensland is the standout price outlier at $103.98/MWh against a NEM backdrop of $55.68–$96.18/MWh across the other regions. NSW sits at $67.08/MWh with 7,943.7 MW demand, Victoria at $55.68/MWh with 5,423.98 MW, SA at $60.77/MWh with 1,361.39 MW, and Tasmania at $96.18/MWh with 1,090.51 MW. The $48/MWh spread between Victoria and Queensland is the key pricing tension this morning. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is flowing 913.55 MW northward and is binding near its export limit of 961.04 MW, while NSW1-QLD1 is also binding at -67.41 MW — Queensland is effectively importing at its constraint ceiling, which explains the price premium there. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is flowing 36 MW from Victoria to SA, with the interconnector still active following its unplanned outage earlier this week.
NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 39.3% per the gridIQ score. The generation mix reflects a post-sunset, evening-demand profile: solar contribution is negligible across all regions, with wind carrying the renewable load. Victoria leads wind output at 1,689.05 MW, Queensland follows at 1,335.22 MW, NSW at 851.47 MW, SA at 508.46 MW, and Tasmania at 247.77 MW. Tasmania is running at effectively 100% renewables (888.75 MW hydro, 247.77 MW wind, carbon intensity 0 tCO2/MWh), while SA is at 72.13% renewable penetration with 0.1688 tCO2/MWh intensity. NSW and Queensland carry carbon intensities of 0.6483 and 0.6199 tCO2/MWh respectively, driven by black coal baseload — NSW at 5,008.96 MW and Queensland at 4,224.19 MW. Victoria's brown coal fleet is outputting 4,403.81 MW, producing the highest regional intensity at 0.8516 tCO2/MWh. Battery dispatch is active across all regions: Queensland leads at 350.46 MW, Victoria at 215.89 MW, NSW at 153.63 MW, and SA at 24.53 MW.
Grid stress scores at 70.1, reflecting the binding interconnector constraints and elevated Queensland pricing. The most operationally relevant active notice is the Murraylink outage (constraint set I-ML_ZERO, V-S-MNSP1 on the LHS) — the interconnector is currently flowing but participants should monitor its status given the recent unplanned outage history. The MT PASA published 19 May identifies no Low Reserve Conditions across the outlook period, which is constructive. Traders should note the EMMS Production Systems datacentre transfer scheduled for 26 May between 18:00–19:00 AEST, during which FPP calculation delivery via the participant data model may be delayed and the Market Portal will be intermittently unavailable.
Today's outlook is shaped by the mild autumn conditions across all regions — Sydney at 12.2°C, Melbourne at 10.4°C, driving heating demand rather than cooling load. Queensland's clear skies will bring strong solar output through the