NEM Overview: Saturday 16 May 2026

Murraylink is the defining market event this morning. The interconnector tripped at 0145 AEST and remains on a zero-flow constraint (I-ML_ZERO), severing the SA–VIC DC link entirely. That isolation is directly visible in SA's spot price of $168.88/MWh against VIC's $157.23/MWh, with SA's 1,226 MW of demand being met almost entirely by local gas — 361 MW of OCGT and 186 MW of CCGT — alongside 184 MW of wind. Victoria is exporting 356 MW into SA via the V-SA AC interconnector, which is absorbing some of the supply pressure, but the Murraylink outage removes a key flexibility pathway and leaves SA exposed to any further generation shortfall. This is the third time in a fortnight AEMO has had to manage SA system security through directions or constraint invocations; two separate voltage-related direction events occurred on 6 and 14 May, underscoring the region's sensitivity to synchronous plant availability.

The wider NEM price picture sits at moderate levels outside SA. NSW trades at $98.14/MWh on demand of 6,648 MW, anchored by 5,140 MW of black coal and supported by 970 MW of hydro and 539 MW of wind. Queensland is the cheapest mainland region at $91.60/MWh with 5,617 MW of demand; its mix includes 1,817 MW of black coal, 1,037 MW of wind, 348 MW of gas OCGT, and 131 MW of hydro. Tasmania sits at $112.24/MWh, exporting 87 MW to Victoria via Basslink on 808 MW of hydro and 99 MW of wind — 100% renewable at point of generation. Western Australia is the notable outlier at $263.34/MWh, though as a separate market that price does not interact with the NEM interconnected regions. The NSW–VIC interconnector is flowing 503 MW north from Victoria to NSW and is binding at its import limit, while the QLD–NSW link (NSW1-QLD1) is also binding at its import limit of 289 MW, meaning Queensland is pushing its maximum allowable flow south into NSW.

NEM-wide renewable penetration stands at 48.1% on the gridIQ score. That figure is weighted materially by Tasmania's all-renewable output and Queensland's 1,037 MW wind contribution (38% renewable share in QLD), while Victoria sits at just 13% renewable penetration this interval — 75 MW of wind and negligible solar against 1,601 MW of brown coal and 167 MW of battery discharge. Grid stress is elevated at 75.7/100, consistent with the Murraylink outage, the binding interconnector constraints, and the active LOR notices for Queensland. Price stability scores only 35.2/100, reflecting the spread across regions and constraint-driven price formation.

The forward watch for today and tomorrow centres squarely on Queensland's reserve position. AEMO has declared a Forecast LOR1 for QLD from 1300 AEST today (18 May) through to midnight, escalating to a Forecast LOR2 on 19 May from 0600–1930 AEST with a 155 MW reserve shortfall against the 760 MW requirement. Cloud cover across QLD is forecast at 88–100% today and tomorrow, suppressing solar. AEMO is