NEM Overview: Monday 18 May 2026

Spot prices are tight across the NEM's eastern regions, ranging from $73.96/MWh in SA to $100.07/MWh in QLD as of the 06:30 AEST interval. QLD is the dearest market at $100.07/MWh on 6,614 MW of demand, with NSW close behind at $98.14/MWh on 7,815 MW. The NSW–QLD interconnector (NSW1-QLD1) is sitting at its binding import limit of -34.41 MW, meaning northward flow capacity is fully constrained and is contributing to the price convergence between those two regions. VIC is softer at $83.44/MWh despite 778 MW flowing north to NSW on the VIC1-NSW1 interconnector, which remains well within its export headroom. SA is the cheapest NEM region at $73.96/MWh with 326 MW flowing east to VIC via V-SA; Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) remains on outage following the unplanned event notified 16 May, constraining the direct SA-VIC MNSP link to -27 MW and limiting SA's ability to export surplus wind into Victoria.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 31.6% per the current gridIQ score. SA is carrying the highest renewable share at 70.2%, with 1,129 MW of wind and negligible solar at this hour producing a carbon intensity of just 0.165 tCO2/MWh. Tasmania is effectively carbon-free at 0.034 tCO2/MWh with 1,069 MW of hydro and 105 MW of wind against 1,139 MW of demand. QLD's renewable share is the lowest at 17.7% (0.689 tCO2/MWh), with 4,144 MW of black coal and 934 MW of gas OCGT underpinning supply. VIC's 960 MW of wind is notable but is offset by 3,818 MW of brown coal, producing a carbon intensity of 0.954 tCO2/MWh — the highest in the NEM. Grid stress reads 78.5/100, reflecting the binding NSW-QLD interconnector and the active reserve notices for QLD.

The critical active notice for today is the ST PASA Forecast LOR1 for QLD running from 06:00 to 19:30 AEST, with minimum available reserves of 1,012 MW against a requirement of 1,197 MW — a 185 MW shortfall. A second LOR1 window is forecast 21:30–22:00 AEST. This notice has been active since 16 May and the original LOR2 condition was cancelled yesterday after a market response, but the LOR1 persists. Cloud cover is currently 100% across QLD with solar potential effectively zero this morning, so the solar ramp during the middle of the day will be modest. Traders should watch the QLD evening peak closely: with the NSW-QLD interconnector already at its binding limit and limited interconnector relief available, any unplanned thermal outage in QLD during the 17:00–19:30 window carries real price spike risk. The Upper Tumut units (NSW hydro) returned to service at 13:27 AEST yesterday following Monday's non-credible contingency event, which removes one source of NSW supply uncertainty.