NEM Overview: Friday 15 May 2026
NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 53.3% as of the 06:30 AEST interval, with grid stress elevated at 74.3 — the standout condition this morning. Victoria is the price outlier in the opposite direction, clearing at -$0.10/MWh against demand of 4,477 MW, driven by 2,913 MW of wind output that is overwhelming local consumption and pushing surplus power north across VIC1-NSW1 at 394 MW. NSW is absorbing that export and clearing at $81.53/MWh with 6,823 MW of demand; black coal accounts for 4,651 MW of in-region output, supplemented by 873 MW of wind and 465 MW of hydro. Queensland matches NSW almost exactly at $81.83/MWh, with 2,120 MW of black coal and 1,226 MW of wind supplying 5,880 MW of demand. Tasmania prices at $104.50/MWh with the Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) flowing 9.6 MW south to Victoria at its import limit — effectively islanded from Victoria on export at present.
South Australia at $125/MWh and Western Australia at $229.72/MWh are the highest-priced regions this morning. SA's elevated price follows a series of AEMO-directed interventions for voltage control — Barker Inlet Power Station (AGL) was directed to synchronise at 15:55 AEST on 15 May for voltage support, with that direction and the associated intervention event cancelled at 16:35 AEST. The underlying voltage management issue in SA recurs periodically during high-renewable, low-synchronous-generation conditions; with 818 MW of wind and 81.9% renewable penetration in-region, gas (128.5 MW OCGT, 58 MW CCGT) and a 27 MW battery discharge are providing the synchronous and stored response. The Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is binding at its export limit of 163.6 MW from Victoria into SA, which is providing some price relief but insufficient to close the $125/$(-0.10) spread entirely.
On active notices: the Loy Yang A Unit 2 (LYA2) non-conformance in Victoria at 06:30–06:35 AEST (-16 MW) is a minor dispatch deviation and does not materially affect the Victorian surplus picture. Directlink No. 2 Leg returned to service at 14:10 AEST yesterday after a planned outage since 11 May, restoring the NSW-QLD MNSP1 corridor to full capability — though the interconnector is currently showing zero flow. The MT PASA reserve notice from 12 May identifies no low reserve conditions across the outlook period, and AEMO's medium-term assessment remains clear.
Today's outlook is shaped by the weather profile: NSW faces 96% average cloud cover with near-zero solar potential, keeping solar output negligible for the day and placing the generation mix burden on wind (forecast wind potential 0.7) and thermal plant. Victoria has a partial clearing expected with solar potential of 7.7 and wind at 3.8, which may ease the current surplus and lift prices out of negative territory by mid-morning. SA wind conditions moderate today (potential 2.8), so the gas-synchronous requirement for voltage control is likely to persist through the day, supporting the $125/MWh price level