Commodity Demand — VIC1: Friday 15 May 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at -$0.10/MWh with demand at 4,477 MW as of 06:30 AEST — Saturday morning conditions with wind generating 2,913 MW against a load that represents roughly the trough of the overnight cycle. The price-demand relationship across the past 24 hours tells the full story: when demand pushed to its daily peak of around 6,373 MW at 08:30 AEST Friday, prices held in the $83–$91/MWh range; as demand fell through the overnight trough to sub-4,200 MW between 12:00–14:00 AEST, prices went persistently negative, bottoming at -$12.10/MWh. Demand is now climbing off that overnight floor — up from 3,960 MW at 12:35 AEST — and prices have tracked it back toward zero, though the rate of increase is modest at this early weekend hour.

The Saturday morning demand trajectory shapes a materially different day than Friday. The overnight pattern shows demand troughed near 3,760–3,800 MW around 12:00–13:00 AEST before beginning its recovery. Today's weather — 14.4°C current with a forecast maximum of 21.8°C and 77% cloud cover — means minimal cooling load and negligible solar input, so the morning ramp will be driven by domestic activity rather than temperature stress. The morning price escalation seen Friday (prices rising from near zero at 14:00 AEST to $60–$83/MWh by 17:00 AEST as demand crossed 5,175–5,540 MW) is unlikely to be replicated today at the same magnitude given the weekend demand profile typically peaks 800–1,000 MW below weekday levels.

Forecast RRPs for the 07:00–08:30 AEST window (21:00–22:30 UTC) are consistently negative, ranging from -$0.10 to -$12.10/MWh, reflecting market expectations that demand remains too low to absorb current generation capacity. The first forecast intervals showing a material price uptick appear around 08:00–09:30 AEST, with projected prices moving into the $8–$21/MWh range — consistent with demand crossing the 4,800–5,200 MW threshold where the mid-merit stack begins to set price. The non-conformance notice for LYA2 (Loy Yang A Unit 2, -16 MW deviation at 06:30 AEST) has no material price impact at current demand levels, but is worth monitoring if demand rises faster than forecast and dispatched capacity becomes tighter in the morning peak window.

The key price inflection today is the 07:00–09:30 AEST window. If Saturday demand tracks 600–900 MW below Friday's equivalent period — as the weekend profile and mild temperature suggest — prices are unlikely to sustain above $30–$40/MWh during the morning peak, and the extended negative or near-zero price period through overnight into early morning remains the dominant feature of today's dispatch. Flexible load operators have a clear window through 06:30–08:00 AEST to absorb energy at or below zero before the ramp erodes that opportunity.