Commodity Demand — QLD1: Friday 15 May 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $82.50/MWh with total demand at 5,923 MW as of 06:35 AEST this Saturday morning. Demand is in an upward trajectory, having climbed from a overnight trough of around 4,600 MW at approximately 10:30–11:30 AEST and now rising steadily through the morning. The price-demand relationship is tight and consistent: the overnight trough period registered near-zero and briefly negative prices (down to -$2.26/MWh) when demand sat below 5,000 MW, while prices accelerated sharply once demand crossed the 6,000 MW threshold during the morning ramp, clearing above $84–$91/MWh as demand peaked near 7,500 MW around 17:30–18:00 AEST. Today's Saturday demand profile is tracking lower than the equivalent workday pattern — the 07:30–08:00 AEST peak reached ~7,500 MW on Friday, whereas the current Saturday morning curve is running roughly 1,500 MW softer at the same clock time.

Forecast data for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) points to $82.50/MWh, consistent with the current dispatch price, with consensus across the most recent pre-dispatch runs sitting in the $72.75–$82.50/MWh band. The 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) half-hour forecasts drop to $54.63–$72.83/MWh across the run series, signalling that the market anticipates demand softening from its current upward trajectory as the Saturday morning peak flattens. Further out, the 08:00 AEST (22:00 UTC) window is forecast in the $39.82–$52.75/MWh range, confirming an expected price step-down as demand pulls back from the morning shoulder and solar generation begins contributing — today's outlook shows average solar potential of 8.6 on a partly cloudy day with 56% cloud cover forecast.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST shows black coal at 2,120 MW, wind at 1,226 MW, hydro at 130 MW, gas OCGT at 122 MW, and battery at 91 MW, with solar negligible at 2.56 MW given the pre-dawn timing of the generation snapshot. Grid stress scores are elevated at 78.8/100, consistent with the morning demand ramp and carbon intensity rising to 0.5268 tCO2/MWh as renewable share falls to 39.27% — down sharply from the 70%+ renewable penetration recorded overnight when demand was well below 5,000 MW and wind was carrying a higher proportional share. No market notices directly affect Queensland operations today; the relevant active notices relate to SA voltage interventions (now cancelled) and a NSW non-conformance for BW04, neither of which constrains QLD dispatch.

The day's price outlook follows demand closely: expect prices to ease into the $40–$55/MWh range through mid-morning as Saturday demand plateaus, with a mild evening ramp back toward the $70–$85/MWh band as demand climbs again after 18:00 AEST. The absence of extreme heat — maximum of 23.4°C forecast today — removes the risk of a late-afternoon demand spike, limiting upside price exposure for the remainder of Saturday.