Commodity Demand — QLD1: Thursday 14 May 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $101.83/MWh with demand at 6,627 MW at 6:35 AEST, continuing the evening ramp that began around 5:00 AEST when demand crossed 6,250 MW and prices broke above $100/MWh. The demand-price relationship through today's data is clear: the session low of $0.03/MWh coincided with demand troughs near 5,270 MW in the early hours, while today's peak demand of approximately 7,793 MW at 7:55 AEST drove a price spike to $233.01/MWh. That morning peak window — roughly 7:30 to 9:30 AEST — sustained prices between $145/MWh and $233/MWh, illustrating how tightly supply headroom compresses once Queensland demand pushes above 7,500 MW.

Demand has been tracking upward since its overnight floor and is now climbing through the current evening period, rising from 6,209 MW at 6:00 AEST to 6,628 MW now. The trajectory mirrors this morning's ramp profile, though the starting point is lower and the absence of a breakfast-style commercial load surge limits the ceiling. Generation at the latest interval shows black coal at 2,033 MW, wind at 1,372 MW, battery at 393 MW, hydro at 131 MW, and gas OCGT at 120 MW, with solar negligible at 0.39 MW given the time of day. With solar contributing nothing to the evening build, demand growth from here falls directly on dispatchable plant and battery discharge.

The most recent forecast for the 7:00 AEST trading period prices it at $90.75/MWh, and the 7:30 AEST interval at $90.75/MWh, suggesting the market expects demand to stabilise and ease from the current level as the evening peak passes. That is consistent with tonight being a Friday — commercial load typically drops faster on a Friday evening than mid-week — and with the mild weather outlook: current temperature is 13.8°C with minimal heating demand index (4.2) and tomorrow's forecast maximum of 22.2°C removes any significant air-conditioning or heating driver. If demand tracks back toward 6,200–6,400 MW over the next hour, spot prices are likely to fall into the $80–92/MWh range consistent with the forecast.

The overnight outlook is structurally cheap. Load window data points to prices in the $5–$35/MWh range from 08:30 AEST tonight through to 06:00 AEST tomorrow morning, with several intervals showing negative prices between 10:30 AEST tonight and 04:30 AEST — indicating surplus generation expected relative to demand troughs that historically sit below 5,300 MW in Queensland overnight. Flexibility-capable loads and battery charging operators have a clear opportunity window across that period, with the best-value intervals concentrated around midnight to 04:30 AEST.