Commodity Demand — VIC1: Wednesday 13 May 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $87.69/MWh with demand at 5,706 MW as of 06:35 AEST, and the trajectory is rising sharply. Demand troughed overnight at around 3,976 MW with prices as low as $10–$13/MWh in the early hours, but the morning ramp is well underway. The price-demand relationship today is tight and nonlinear: when demand crossed 5,300 MW around 06:50 AEST prices lifted into the mid-$80s/MWh, and the intraday peak of 6,761 MW reached at 18:05 AEST correlated directly with prices touching $103/MWh. The current demand level of 5,706 MW sits at the lower boundary of that elevated price band, consistent with the $87.69/MWh floor price that has been recurring repeatedly in today's dispatch intervals — a signal of a binding generator offer stack at that level.

The forecast data for the 07:00 AEST half-hour window is tracking at $87.69/MWh, with the most recent pre-dispatch runs for the 07:30 AEST interval consistently settling around $87.69–$88/MWh across multiple forecast cycles. This convergence in consecutive pre-dispatch prices indicates the market is highly confident demand will continue climbing into a range that pins price against that same stack position. Today's weather is the key demand driver: current temperature is 8.4°C with heating demand at 9.6 units and overnight minimum of 8.4°C, consistent with the sustained morning heating load that pushes Victorian winter demand above 6,000 MW during peak. Today's maximum of 20.8°C limits any afternoon cooling load, but the cold morning guarantees the demand ramp continues for at least the next 90 minutes.

Looking ahead to today's price outlook, the combination of a rising demand trajectory and pre-dispatch forecasts anchored at $87.69/MWh through the 07:30 AEST interval points to prices remaining in the $85–$105/MWh range through the morning peak. The overnight price history demonstrates the scale of the price drop once demand retreats below ~5,000 MW — from $87/MWh+ down to sub-$15/MWh — and load window forecasts for the 08:30–09:00 AEST period (UTC 22:30–23:00) show expected prices in the $38–$49/MWh range, consistent with the post-peak demand unwind typical of a May weekday. Generation is currently split across wind (1,260 MW), brown coal (1,656 MW), and battery (160 MW), with solar at zero and gas OCGT and CCGT offline — the absence of peaking gas capacity at this demand level means any further demand upside has limited thermal response headroom, which is a price risk factor traders should monitor through the 07:00–08:00 AEST window.