Commodity Demand — QLD1: Wednesday 13 May 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $92.59/MWh with demand at 6,591 MW at 06:35 AEST, tracking upward through the evening ramp. The price-demand relationship across today's trading day has been tightly coupled: demand peaked at 7,752 MW during the 17:50–18:30 AEST morning period, driving prices consistently above $100/MWh with individual intervals touching $119/MWh, before a sustained demand taper through the afternoon saw prices settle into a $66–$78/MWh band from midday through to around 18:00 AEST. The current 6,591 MW reading marks the beginning of the evening demand rebuild, and prices are responding — up from $82.50/MWh at 06:00 AEST as demand crossed the 6,200 MW threshold and has added roughly 400 MW in the past 35 minutes.

The forecast price series for the 07:00–07:30 AEST window clusters around $92–$96/MWh, consistent with the current trajectory. The most recent pre-dispatch forecast for the 07:00 AEST interval came in at $96.35/MWh, stepping up from earlier forecasts of $85–$88/MWh for that same target interval — a clear signal that the market is marking up the evening peak as demand momentum builds. The generation mix at 06:30 AEST has battery (201.76 MW) and hydro (176.4 MW) contributing alongside wind (1,558 MW) and black coal (1,797 MW), with renewables at 50.63% of supply. Wind output at current levels provides meaningful volume buffer, but with solar effectively zero (0.34 MW) overnight and through early morning, any softening in wind dispatch would tighten supply margins quickly.

The evening demand trajectory points to a test of the 7,000–7,500 MW range, the same band that triggered $100+/MWh intervals this morning. A non-credible contingency event involving the T157 Ingham South transformers — which tripped at 12:55 AEST and returned to service at 13:41 AEST — had no material price impact and is resolved, posing no ongoing constraint risk. Tomorrow's weather outlook (14.6°C minimum, 21.7°C maximum, 35% average cloud cover) points to moderate heating demand and improved solar potential, which should cap the morning ramp more effectively than today's overcast conditions. The overnight trough — already flagged in load window forecasts at near-zero and negative prices from 08:30 AEST onward — will be the primary arbitrage window for flexible loads and batteries before the next morning peak.