NEM Overview: Tuesday 12 May 2026
Spot prices are tight across the NEM at 06:25 AEST, ranging from $80.86/MWh in VIC to $96.24/MWh in TAS, with NSW at $93.64/MWh and QLD at $92.73/MWh sitting close together. The $15/MWh spread between VIC and TAS is the most notable regional divergence — Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is showing zero flow at present, meaning Tasmania's 1,105 MW of hydro output is fully absorbed domestically and the island is neither importing nor exporting. VIC is pushing 666 MW north across VIC1-NSW1, and SA is drawing 131 MW from Victoria via the Heywood interconnector. NEM-wide total demand sits at approximately 22,216 MW across the five regions, consistent with a mild autumn evening load profile. Grid stress scores at 88.4 — elevated but not critical.
NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 43.9%, with carbon intensity scores varying sharply by region. Tasmania reads 0.00 tCO2/MWh at 100% renewable on hydro and wind. SA is at 0.197 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 67%, supplied predominantly by 742 MW of wind alongside 386 MW of combined gas generation and 51 MW of battery discharge. QLD reaches 52% renewable penetration with 1,437 MW of wind and negligible solar at this hour, backed by 1,740 MW of black coal and 426 MW of battery output. NSW carries the highest carbon intensity at 0.646 tCO2/MWh, with 5,616 MW of black coal dominating its 7,668 MW load; wind contributes 890 MW and hydro 748 MW. VIC sits at 0.624 tCO2/MWh, with 1,640 MW of brown coal and 1,069 MW of wind as the two largest sources.
Two active market notices are worth monitoring today. The Directlink No. 3 leg (N-Q-MNSP1) remains on unplanned outage with constraint set N-MBTE_1 invoked — the interconnector is currently at zero flow and binding on its import limit, which continues to limit NSW-QLD transfer flexibility. Separately, a network augmentation commissioned in NSW on 9 May added the Wagga–Dinawan 330 kV double circuit and associated busbars; this is now live and may provide additional transfer headroom on the QNI corridor as it is tested into normal operation.
Today's outlook is broadly stable. Autumn temperatures — NSW topping 18.5°C, VIC 18.3°C — keep heating and cooling demand low, and price stability scores at 61.5 reflect that. NSW cloud cover at 75% and VIC at 41% clearing through the day suggest limited solar contribution in NSW but a moderate uptick in VIC from this morning's near-zero levels. Wind forecasts are subdued across most regions today; QLD retains the strongest wind outlook. The most recent MT PASA reserve notice identifies no Low Reserve Conditions across the NEM, and no FCAS or voltage interventions are currently active following the cancellation of the SA direction event on 6 May.