Commodity Demand — VIC1: Tuesday 12 May 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $85.52/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 5,581 MW and rising. The price-demand relationship across today's trading has been textbook: demand troughed near 4,041 MW in the early hours (around 13:41 AEST) with prices tracking as low as $0–$9/MWh, then climbed steadily through the morning peak, reaching 6,746 MW at 18:20 AEST where prices pushed into the $87–$95/MWh range. The current interval represents the beginning of the evening ramp, with demand up roughly 430 MW from the post-afternoon trough around 4,408 MW at 03:10 AEST and prices responding in kind — each 500 MW increment of demand above 5,000 MW is broadly correlating with a $15–$20/MWh price step-up in today's data.

The evening peak is the key price risk for today. The forecast for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC target) sits at $81.46/MWh across the most recent PASA runs, converging tightly from earlier estimates as high as $99.91/MWh — the market has progressively repriced lower as the generation outlook clarified. The 07:30 AEST target (21:30 UTC) carries a materially higher forecast of $80–$105/MWh depending on the run, reflecting genuine uncertainty around where demand peaks. Current generation at 06:30 AEST shows brown coal at 1,640 MW, wind at 1,069 MW, hydro at 220 MW, and battery at 280 MW, with solar at zero — the absence of solar from this point forward removes a key demand-offsetting source, which is the structural driver of the evening price lift.

Demand trajectory through 07:00–08:30 AEST is the critical window. At 10.4°C with 98% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 7.6, residential heating load will sustain evening demand well above current levels. The 06:00–09:00 AEST band this morning saw demand run from approximately 5,238 MW to 6,731 MW, with prices holding $65–$95/MWh throughout. A similar magnitude evening ramp — plausible given comparable temperature conditions — would push demand back toward 6,500–6,900 MW, the range where prices consistently printed $115–$130/MWh during the prior evening peak (around 06:45–07:45 AEST, when demand hit 6,901 MW). The MTPASA notice confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are forecast, so system adequacy is not a concern, but price volatility at peak demand levels remains the live risk for exposed positions heading into the 07:00–08:00 AEST window.