Commodity Demand — QLD1: Tuesday 12 May 2026

Queensland spot price is $96.83/MWh at 6,475 MW total demand as of 06:30 AEST, and the trajectory through the morning session tells the dominant story for today. Demand troughed near 5,030 MW around 11:00–11:10 AEST with prices briefly turning negative (as low as -$3.01/MWh), before a sharp ramp through the pre-dawn period drove load to a session peak of 7,813 MW at 17:45 AEST, where prices reached $92.73/MWh. The evening wind-down is now underway, with demand falling from that peak and prices consolidating in the low-to-mid $90s/MWh — a tight band that reflects the market clearing on marginal thermal capacity as solar output collapses to near zero (0.72 MW currently) and wind sits at 1,437 MW alongside 426 MW of battery discharge.

The demand-price relationship across today's trading day shows clear sensitivity thresholds. Below approximately 5,500 MW, prices tracked in the $23–$40/MWh range through the shoulder and overnight periods, with sub-zero prints when demand fell under 5,200 MW. Once demand crossed 6,200 MW on the morning ramp — roughly 14:50–15:00 AEST — prices stepped up to the $50–$70/MWh band, and sustained demand above 7,000 MW anchored prices firmly in the $80–$93/MWh range through the 07:00–09:00 AEST business peak. The current 6,475 MW level at $96.83/MWh sits slightly elevated relative to the earlier demand-price curve, suggesting the dispatch stack is tighter now as battery storage discharges and baseload thermal units carry more of the load without daytime solar support.

Forward forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) are clustered at $92.59–$96.83/MWh across multiple forecast runs, with the 08:30 AEST target (21:30 UTC) attracting higher forecast prints of $105.95/MWh in the most recent run. That step-up aligns with demand expected to remain in the 6,400–6,600 MW range as the evening load settles — modest by peak standards but sufficient to keep the stack marginal on gas and coal with batteries near capacity limits. MTPASA published this morning identifies no Low Reserve Conditions in Queensland, and current grid stress scores at 87.7 indicate tight but manageable dispatch conditions. Overnight from approximately 08:30–10:30 AEST tomorrow, load windows indicate prices are forecast to retreat sharply into the $0–$40/MWh range as demand falls below 5,500 MW and overnight surplus capacity re-emerges.