NEM Overview: Monday 11 May 2026

Tasmania leads the NEM on price at $106.24/MWh against a demand of 1,150 MW, with the Basslink interconnector (T-V-MNSP1) sitting at zero flow — no energy is moving between Tasmania and Victoria in either direction right now. That isolation partly explains the premium; Tasmania's 1,150 MW load is being met entirely by hydro (735 MW) and wind (53 MW), giving it 100% renewable penetration and zero carbon intensity, but the lack of interconnector support leaves it price-exposed. Western Australia is the other outlier at $109.61/MWh, though that data point is notably stale — the WA settlement timestamp is from 09:30 AEST yesterday, so traders should treat it as indicative only.

The three mainland eastern states are trading in a narrow $80–$85/MWh band: QLD at $80.04/MWh, VIC at $82.20/MWh, NSW at $84.79/MWh, and SA at $85.06/MWh. The spread is thin, which reflects moderate mid-evening demand and broadly unconstrained interconnector flows across QNI and VIC-NSW — QLD is currently exporting 425.7 MW net to NSW, and Victoria is sending 63.6 MW north. The V-SA interconnector is binding at its export limit of 185.84 MW into South Australia, which is worth watching; SA's gas CCGT fleet (282.54 MW) is backstopping wind (235.81 MW) in the absence of solar, and any shift in that interconnector binding could reprice SA quickly. NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 35.3% per the current scoring interval, with SA leading connected regions at 45.49% renewable share and QLD the lowest at 4.08% given solar has dropped off and coal (2,020 MW) is carrying the evening load.

Grid stress is elevated at a score of 82/100, which warrants attention even though spot prices are calm. An active inter-regional transfer notice remains in place for Directlink (N-Q-MNSP1) following an unplanned outage of its No. 3 leg — that interconnector is currently flowing only -17 MW against an export limit of 45.4 MW, well within its reduced capacity. The Wagga–Dinawan 330 kV double circuit commissioned on 9 May adds transmission capacity in the NSW–QLD corridor, which is relevant context for QNI flows today. The MSATS 56.2 release completed on 10 May is confirmed; no residual system issues are flagged.

Today's outlook is for prices to remain in the $80–$90/MWh range across the mainland through the morning ramp. NSW and VIC solar potential is moderate-to-good for the day (solar potential index 12.1 and 15.3 respectively), which should see midday prices soften in both regions. Wind outlooks across all regions are subdued for today, so the evening peak will rely more heavily on dispatchable capacity. SA traders should monitor the V-SA binding constraint through the morning — if wind drops further and the interconnector limit tightens, gas headroom in SA is limited and prices could spike ahead of the solar recovery.