Commodity Demand — VIC1: Monday 11 May 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $103.28/MWh with total demand at 5,869 MW as of 06:30 AEST — a level that firmly activates the $100/MWh+ pricing regime seen consistently across today's morning ramp. The demand-price relationship today is well-defined: prices hold broadly in the $60–$80/MWh band when demand runs below 6,000 MW during shoulder periods, but step up decisively into the $100–$140/MWh range once demand clears that threshold. The morning peak earlier today reached 6,983 MW at 18:00 AEST, pushing prices to $127.69/MWh, and a secondary intraday peak around 7,002 MW printed the session high of $138.54/MWh — a clear demonstration of how tightly the upper dispatch stack prices in Victoria during high-demand intervals.

Demand is now in a rising phase following the overnight trough of approximately 4,026 MW around 12:50 AEST, with the current 5,869 MW reading tracking the typical autumn evening ramp. The forecast RRP for the 07:00 AEST half-hour is centred around $87–$104/MWh across recent dispatch forecasts, suggesting the market expects demand to remain in the transitional zone between shoulder and peak pricing. The generation mix at 06:30 AEST shows brown coal at 1,652 MW, wind at 221 MW, and hydro at 1 MW, with solar and gas CCGT/OCGT contributing zero — consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration is 11.87% and carbon intensity is 1.0752 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the low overnight wind output relative to total demand.

The key price risk for the remainder of today's morning is the rate of demand escalation into the 07:00–09:00 AEST window. Today's weather profile shows a cool 8.5°C with a 9.5 heating demand index and minimal wind at 2.5 km/h — conditions that sustain strong space heating loads through the morning. If demand tracks toward the 6,500–7,000 MW range seen in today's earlier peak periods, prices are likely to hold in the $105–$130/MWh corridor based on today's observed price-demand curve. The 07:30 AEST forecast RRP of $109–$119/MWh across multiple forecast runs is consistent with that trajectory. Load-shifting to post-midnight windows, where prices are forecast in the $8.95–$40/MWh range from 09:30 AEST onwards, offers the sharpest cost differential of the day.