Commodity Demand — SA1: Monday 11 May 2026

South Australia's spot price sits at $125/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,375.85 MW, up from a session low near 590 MW in the early hours of this morning. The price-demand relationship through today's data is clear: when demand climbed through the morning ramp from around 770 MW at 14:30 to a daily peak of approximately 1,796 MW at 08:25–08:35 AEST, prices held in the $100–$138/MWh band. As demand eased through the mid-morning and into the afternoon — dropping to the 1,300–1,400 MW range — prices softened to a floor around $69–$76/MWh, a band that persisted for several hours through the 02:00–07:00 AEST window. The current price of $125/MWh at 1,375.85 MW sits above where that softer mid-range pricing regime was holding, indicating the evening ramp is now putting marginal pressure back on the dispatch stack.

The demand trajectory today follows a textbook May weekday profile for SA: a shallow overnight trough bottoming near 590 MW around 12:35–13:00 AEST, a sharp morning ramp of roughly 1,200 MW over four hours peaking before 09:00 AEST, a gradual mid-day softening through the solar window, and a late afternoon low in the 1,280–1,340 MW range between 17:40 and 18:00 AEST. Demand is now climbing again into the post-sunset evening peak. The price response to the morning peak was notably contained — prices reached $138/MWh but did not sustain above that level — suggesting SA's dispatchable supply mix of gas CCGT (234.88 MW) and gas OCGT (79.96 MW), supplemented by wind (253.5 MW), had sufficient headroom to absorb the ramp without scarcity pricing.

Forward forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) cluster tightly between $88–$122/MWh, with the most recent pre-dispatch run at $88.83/MWh — below the current spot — pointing to expectations that demand will not materially exceed current levels in the near term. The 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) period is forecast significantly higher, with runs clustering around $115–$149/MWh, consistent with the evening peak demand period that historically pushes SA into higher-priced gas dispatch territory once wind contribution is insufficient to offset load growth. Weather is a modest demand-side factor today: at 10.8°C with a heating demand index of 7.2, space heating load is present but not extreme. Tomorrow's forecast maximum of 20.4°C with average solar potential of 13.9% and low wind potential of 0.7% suggests midday prices could soften further as rooftop solar reduces net demand, though the morning and evening peaks are likely to remain in the $90–$130/MWh range absent any supply-side changes.