regional qld — QLD1

The Queensland spot price sits at $69.29/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,463 MW. Looking across the past 24 hours, prices traced the expected diurnal arc: a sustained negative or near-zero price period through the overnight and solar hours (roughly 07:30–17:30 AEST the day prior) bottomed as low as -$14.70/MWh around 10:45 AEST, before climbing sharply into the morning ramp. The current $69.29/MWh sits within the $60–$100/MWh band that has prevailed through the morning peak, which crested above $100/MWh briefly around 18:00 AEST yesterday. The 24-hour volume-weighted average price is in the $50–$55/MWh range once overnight negatives are factored in, placing the current price moderately above that average as demand rebuilds with the morning commute load.

The generation mix is heavily weighted to black coal at 2,566 MW, with hydro contributing 64 MW and gas OCGT at a negligible 0.06 MW. Solar output is currently zero given the pre-sunrise timestamp, which explains why renewable penetration sits at just 2.44% — a sharp contrast to the 20–24% renewable share recorded during yesterday's solar peak hours (around 07:00–10:00 AEST). Carbon intensity is consequently elevated at 0.8585 tCO2/MWh, consistent with the plateau that has persisted since approximately 17:30 AEST yesterday once solar generation fell away. As solar ramps from around 07:00 AEST today, intensity is expected to ease materially, repeating the pattern seen across the carbon history data.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval point to $71.75/MWh, up from earlier forecasts today that had that interval pegged closer to $54–$65/MWh — the upward revision through the morning reflects tightening conditions as demand climbs. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast at $53.52/MWh, suggesting the morning peak is expected to be short-lived with prices easing once solar generation begins to contribute meaningfully. Load window data confirms the overnight period from 08:00–10:30 AEST AEST (UTC+10) remains the optimal flexible load window, with prices forecast down to -$25/MWh across multiple intervals between 10:00–12:30 AEST — consistent with yesterday's midday surplus pattern.

There are multiple active AEMO market notices flagging prices as subject to review under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) for a series of early-morning intervals from approximately 00:05 through 05:45 AEST today. One interval — 05:25 AEST — has already been reviewed and prices confirmed unchanged. The remaining notices covering intervals from 01:05 through 05:45 AEST remain active and unresolved. Traders should treat settlement prices for those intervals as provisional; any retroactive correction could affect contract reconciliation for positions covering the pre-dawn window. No affected regions are specified in the notices, so the review scope across the NEM is not yet confirmed.