NEM Overview

Spot prices are diverging sharply across the NEM this morning (06:25 AEST). SA leads at $109.53/MWh against a demand of just 1,385 MW, driven by wind supplying 386 MW (64% renewable penetration) alongside 216 MW of gas CCGT — yet the region's isolation and reliance on interconnector imports from Victoria is keeping the price elevated. Victoria sits at the opposite extreme at $12.09/MWh on 5,011 MW of demand, with 1,084 MW of wind output pushing renewable penetration to 39% and suppressing the local price. NSW clears at $74.54/MWh on 7,644 MW of demand, with black coal at 5,391 MW dominating the mix and renewables contributing just 2.84% — the lowest in the NEM. QLD mirrors that profile at $71.75/MWh, with black coal running 2,566 MW and renewables at 2.44%. Tasmania prints $87.06/MWh despite 100% renewable generation (360 MW hydro, 133 MW wind), with the Basslink flow marginally negative at -9.49 MW indicating the island is largely self-contained this interval.

Interconnector flows tell a clear story: VIC1-NSW1 is exporting at its binding limit of 857 MW northward into NSW, while NSW1-QLD1 runs 274 MW southbound — also binding — reflecting Queensland drawing from NSW rather than the reverse. The V-S-MNSP1 link is binding at 170 MW flowing into SA, which partially explains the SA premium: even with interconnector support, local supply is tight relative to price-setting conditions. The V-SA flow adds a further 79 MW into South Australia.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 37.4% and grid stress is elevated at 63.7 out of 100, consistent with the binding interconnector conditions and the price divergence between regions. Carbon intensity varies from 0 tCO2/MWh in Tasmania to 0.859 tCO2/MWh in QLD and 0.855 tCO2/MWh in NSW, with SA at a notably low 0.176 tCO2/MWh. Price stability scores 36.5, reflecting the active review notices. Solar potential is zero across all regions — it is pre-dawn — so the morning ramp will be the key watch point as demand builds.

AEMO has issued a sustained run of Manifestly Incorrect Inputs reviews under Clause 3.9.2B covering intervals from approximately 01:30 through to 05:45 AEST, with the 01:50 and 05:25 intervals subsequently confirmed unchanged. Multiple intervals from 02:05 onwards remain under active review as of this briefing. Traders should treat any final prices in those intervals as provisional until AEMO issues confirmations. Watch SA closely through the morning peak — if interconnector capacity tightens further and local wind eases from its current 386 MW, upward price pressure will likely persist.