commodity demand tas — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at $87.04/MWh with demand at 925 MW as of 06:30 AEST, tracking the evening ramp that began around 05:00 AEST when demand lifted from a trough near 760 MW. That low point — recorded around 12:00 AEST Tuesday — corresponded with prices briefly touching $55.78/MWh, the session floor. The demand-price relationship across today's history is clear: the 06:30–18:30 AEST morning peak period, where demand held above 1,050 MW and prices locked into a sustained band of $96.18–$96.24/MWh, shows how a relatively modest demand lift of 150–200 MW above overnight lows is sufficient to push prices up roughly $20–25/MWh in this market. The afternoon trough — demand dropping to the low-to-mid 790s MW between 02:00 and 04:30 AEST — saw prices collapse to $22.02/MWh across multiple intervals, a clear floor price driven by oversupply conditions on the Basslink interconnector or local surplus generation from hydro (360 MW) and wind (133 MW) against subdued load.

The demand trajectory from here points upward. The current 925 MW reading is still well below the 1,100+ MW peak recorded during the morning period, and the typical evening demand ramp for Tasmania in autumn is underway. Forecast RRPs for the next two half-hour intervals sit at $84.46–$87.06/MWh, consistent with the current price, before forecasts extend to $87–$89/MWh through the overnight periods into 22 April. There is no forecast for a return to the elevated $96/MWh band seen this morning, suggesting the dispatch engine does not anticipate demand re-testing the 1,050–1,100 MW range tonight.

A notable feature of today's price action is the volume of AEMO market notices flagging intervals as subject to review under NER clause 3.9.2B for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs. These notices cover a large portion of overnight and early-morning intervals on 22 April — from approximately 00:05 through to 05:45 AEST. Two intervals (01:50 and 05:25 AEST) have already been confirmed with prices unchanged. Traders holding positions in those intervals should note the remaining open reviews, as price revisions remain possible pending AEMO's determination. The volume and density of these notices — spanning roughly five and a half hours of trading — is elevated compared to a typical operating day and warrants close monitoring through the morning session.

The generation mix remains 100% renewable at 0 tCO2/MWh carbon intensity, with hydro at 360 MW and wind at 133 MW covering the current 925 MW load. Gas OCGT sits at zero output. As demand climbs through the evening ramp toward an expected 950–1,000 MW range, price sensitivity will depend on whether hydro dispatch headroom is available or whether Basslink flows shift to support TAS1 — either dynamic capable of moving prices within the $85–$96/MWh range that has characterised today's trading outside the midday low.