commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot price sits at $69.29/MWh with demand at 6,463 MW as of 06:30 AEST, the most recent settlement interval. That price level is consistent with the evening demand ramp that began around 05:30 AEST, when demand climbed from a trough of roughly 4,090 MW in the early hours and prices simultaneously lifted from negative territory into positive pricing. The price-demand relationship has been tight today: the $100.39/MWh intraday peak at 18:00 AEST corresponded with demand touching 7,855 MW, while the overnight low of -$14.70/MWh occurred at 10:45 AEST (00:45 UTC) when demand bottomed at 4,089 MW. The $69–$71/MWh range now prevailing reflects demand still building through the post-sunset evening period, broadly in line with AEMO's near-term forecast of $71.75/MWh for the 07:00 AEST interval — a slight upward revision from the $62.82/MWh forecast issued 30 minutes prior, indicating dispatch conditions are tightening faster than earlier expected.

The forward price signal softens materially once demand clears its evening peak. AEMO's forecast drops to $53.52/MWh by 07:30 AEST as demand is expected to ease from its current trajectory, repeating the structural pattern visible throughout today's history where prices retreated from the $80–$100/MWh morning peak band (17:05–18:00 AEST, demand 7,450–7,855 MW) to the $50–$65/MWh midday and afternoon range (demand 5,600–7,000 MW). Price sensitivity to demand increments is notably high in the 7,500–7,860 MW band, where each additional 100 MW of demand corresponded to roughly $5–$15/MWh of upside. Below 6,500 MW, pricing converges toward a $50–$55/MWh floor anchored by the prevailing generation stack.

Demand-side participants should note a heavy volume of AEMO Manifestly Incorrect Inputs reviews covering overnight intervals from 00:05 through to 05:45 AEST. The 05:25 AEST interval has been confirmed with prices unchanged, but intervals from 05:10 through 05:45 AEST remain under active review. Traders with positions in those windows should treat current price records as preliminary. The generation mix at the current interval is 2,566 MW black coal and 64 MW hydro, with solar at zero given the pre-dawn timing, yielding a carbon intensity of 0.8585 tCO₂/MWh and renewable penetration of just 2.44% — consistent with the post-sunset profile held since approximately 17:30 AEST. That mix will persist through to tomorrow's solar window and constrains any supply-side downward price pressure until rooftop and utility solar generation resumes mid-morning.