NEM Overview

Spot prices across the NEM are orderly this morning, ranging from $52.75/MWh in QLD1 to $75.42/MWh in NSW1, with VIC1 at $65.83/MWh, SA1 at $65.07/MWh, and TAS1 at $75.22/MWh. The $22.67/MWh spread between QLD1 and NSW1 is notable — the NSW1-QLD1 interconnector is binding at its import limit of 566.67 MW (flow is 566.68 MW northward into QLD), which is constraining the price convergence you'd otherwise expect. VIC1-NSW1 is flowing 607 MW northward into NSW, well within its 1,006 MW export limit. WA1, on a separate market and data from its most recent interval, sits at $104.76/MWh against demand of 2,043 MW.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 36.8% per the current score. The generation picture is evening-hours: solar output is zero across all regions, with wind carrying the renewable load — SA1 leads at 548 MW of wind against total demand of 1,279 MW, giving it a renewable penetration of 87.1% and a carbon intensity of just 0.06 tCO2/MWh. TAS1 is at 100% renewable with 518 MW of hydro and 115 MW of wind. VIC1 wind is generating 736 MW but brown coal at 2,199 MW dominates that region's mix, producing the highest carbon intensity on the grid at 0.92 tCO2/MWh. NSW1 is similarly coal-heavy at 4,942 MW of black coal and 0.81 tCO2/MWh, while QLD1 runs 2,364 MW of black coal with renewable penetration of just 3.54% and intensity of 0.85 tCO2/MWh.

The dominant market notice concern today is an extensive series of active "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), covering intervals continuously from approximately 23:00 AEST on 20 April through to 06:20 AEST this morning — that is roughly 7.5 hours of trading intervals still under review. Two earlier intervals (02:25 and 03:25 AEST) have been confirmed unchanged, but the bulk of the overnight period remains unresolved. Traders with positions covering those intervals should treat settled prices as provisional until AEMO issues further confirmation notices. The grid stress score of 74.2 warrants watching into the morning demand ramp, particularly given the binding NSW1-QLD1 interconnector and cool temperatures driving heating demand in VIC1 (7.2°C, 62% cloud cover) and TAS1 (8.3°C).