commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria sits at 5,322 MW and $74.69/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand climbing steadily from a overnight trough of around 3,570 MW (reached near 12:30 AEST) and prices tracking upward in lockstep. The demand-price relationship across today's history is pronounced: as demand pushed through 6,400 MW during the 18:00–19:30 AEST window, prices held in the $105–$142/MWh range, while the overnight floor below 4,000 MW corresponded with spot prices as low as $11–$25/MWh. The current 5,322 MW reading sits in a transitional band where prices are sensitive to incremental load additions — the $74.69/MWh print reflects a market that is tightening but not yet constrained.

The morning demand ramp is well underway. From the post-midnight trough, load has recovered more than 1,700 MW in roughly six hours, with the pace accelerating after 15:30 AEST (05:30 AEST local) as commercial and industrial load comes online. Based on today's trajectory and the pattern from the equivalent period, demand is on track to approach the 6,000–6,400 MW range during the 18:00–20:00 AEST evening peak, where the supply stack becomes notably steeper. Forecast prices for the 07:00 AEST half-hour cluster around $66–$82/MWh, implying the market is not pricing in any significant supply-side stress for the morning period.

The day's price architecture is clear from the data: sub-$30/MWh in the early hours, a gradual lift through the $65–$95/MWh range across the business day as demand builds to the 5,800–6,400 MW band, then easing post-21:00 AEST as load rolls off. At the current demand level, each 200–300 MW increment in load is producing roughly $10–$15/MWh of price response, based on observed sensitivity through the morning ramp. Traders should note that several early-morning intervals (00:30–06:30 AEST) are subject to AEMO review under Clause 3.9.2B for manifestly incorrect inputs — two intervals at 03:25 and 02:25 AEST have been confirmed unchanged, but intervals from 03:00 through to 06:20 AEST remain under active review. Settlement exposure for those windows is not yet finalised.

The generation mix at 06:25 AEST shows brown coal at 2,207 MW, wind at 807 MW, and gas OCGT at 99 MW, with solar contribution at zero given pre-dawn conditions. As solar output builds through the morning — likely peaking between 02:00–04:00 AEST (12:00–14:00 local solar time) — downward pressure on midday prices is expected, consistent with today's earlier pattern where prices softened to the $65–$75/MWh range as demand declined toward the noon trough. The evening demand recovery toward 6,000+ MW, with solar output falling away after 06:00 AEST, is the primary price risk window for the remainder of the trading day.