Regional Outlook — QLD1: Sunday 19 April 2026
The Queensland spot price sits at $98.80/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,510 MW as the morning ramp accelerates. That current print represents a sharp pivot from the overnight session, where prices ran deeply negative from around 09:30 AEST Sunday through to approximately 15:45 AEST, bottoming at -$8.80/MWh during the early hours. The 24-hour trajectory is classic: sustained negative prices during low overnight demand (trough near 3,750 MW), a climb through the pre-dawn period, then a rapid lift above $80/MWh from 17:00 AEST as demand crossed 7,000 MW, with the 06:00 AEST interval touching $110.63/MWh before settling back near current levels.
The generation mix is heavily weighted toward black coal, which is producing 2,791.53 MW at the latest trading interval, with hydro contributing 85.86 MW and gas OCGT at a negligible 0.06 MW. Solar is at zero, consistent with overnight/early morning conditions. Renewable penetration sits at just 2.98% — the daytime solar peak earlier in the cycle pushed renewables to 23.6% around 15:30 AEST Sunday before falling away entirely as the sun dropped. Carbon intensity is 0.8537 tCO2/MWh, near the session high, reflecting the coal-dominant overnight and morning mix; intensity was considerably lower (0.69–0.72 tCO2/MWh) during the afternoon solar window.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval are converging around $82.63–$103.99/MWh, with the most recent run (20:01 UTC / 06:01 AEST) pointing to $82.63/MWh — a downward revision from earlier forecasts that had the 07:00 slot at $103–$117/MWh. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast at $91.71–$95.73/MWh across recent predispatch runs, suggesting prices ease slightly before stabilising in the $90s through the morning shoulder. The load window data indicates excellent opportunities in the overnight-to-early-morning period from 09:00–10:00 AEST (prices ranging from -$8.80 to sub-zero), consistent with the historical pattern visible in today's price trace.
AEMO has issued a substantial volume of active market notices flagging prices as subject to review under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) for intervals spanning 04:05 AEST through to 06:30 AEST today. Two earlier intervals — 02:20 AEST and 04:40 AEST — have been reviewed and confirmed unchanged. The concentration of review notices across the pre-dawn and morning ramp period is material for settlement exposure: traders and retailers with positions across those intervals should treat published prices as provisional until AEMO completes its review and issues confirmations. No affected regions are specified in the notices, so the review scope appears market-wide rather than Queensland-specific.