NEM Overview

Grid stress is the dominant feature this morning, with the gridIQ stress score sitting at 80.4 out of 100. Spot prices are elevated across all NEM regions: SA1 leads at $136.97/MWh, VIC1 at $126.05/MWh, NSW1 at $122.20/MWh, TAS1 at $110.24/MWh, and QLD1 at $98.80/MWh. The $38/MWh spread between SA1 and QLD1 reflects tight supply conditions in the southern states, with overnight cool temperatures driving heating demand — NSW1 and TAS1 are both sitting at around 8–9°C with heating demand indices of 9.6 and 9.7 respectively. The Basslink interconnector (T-V-MNSP1) is currently carrying zero flow, leaving Tasmania's 631 MW of hydro and 28 MW of wind serving local load only, which contributes to the VIC1-SA1 price elevation. V-SA is flowing 455 MW into South Australia, near 68% of its export limit.

NEM-wide renewable penetration stands at 43.3% by the gridIQ score, though regional figures tell a more granular story. Tasmania runs at 100% renewable with hydro and wind covering all local demand. NSW1 sits at 15.73% renewable, led by 925 MW of hydro and 98 MW of wind, against a backdrop of 5,479 MW from black coal. QLD1 renewables are at just 2.98%, with 2,792 MW of black coal and 86 MW of hydro serving 6,510 MW of demand, and zero solar output at this pre-dawn hour. SA1 reaches 14.01% renewable from 61 MW of wind, with gas — 273 MW CCGT and 99 MW OCGT — covering the remainder after 455 MW of Victorian imports. VIC1 is at 1.05% renewable, with 2,215 MW of brown coal and 111 MW of gas OCGT forming the base, and only 24 MW of wind online.

The most significant market operations issue today is a sustained wave of AEMO price review notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), covering every trading interval from 02:25 through to 06:30 AEST — 34 consecutive intervals flagged as of this briefing, all still active. The 04:40 interval has been reviewed and confirmed unchanged, and the 02:20 interval was similarly cleared, but the bulk of the early-morning window remains under review. Traders should treat any positions referencing those intervals with caution until AEMO issues final determinations. Price stability scores at 49.2 and market conditions at 53 reflect this uncertainty.

The outlook for today is shaped by April's cool mornings sustaining heating load through the breakfast peak. Solar generation is zero NEM-wide at this hour and will begin ramping from around 07:30 AEST, which should ease SA1 and QLD1 prices through the middle of the day. Wind resources are weak across all regions — wind potential is rated 0.1 in NSW1, VIC1, and QLD1 — so the midday solar ramp will be the primary price moderator. Watch the NSW1-QLD1 interconnector: it is currently binding at -696 MW, with QLD